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Portfolio > ETFs > Bond

Treasury Unit Worries About Effects of Rate Spikes on Bond Funds

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What You Need to Know

  • The Office of Financial Research helps U.S. Treasury officials track financial stability risk.
  • Rising interest rates are on the office tracking screen.
  • Another concern is investment fund bond holdings.

The Office of Financial Research worries that rapidly rising interest rates could lead to liquidity problems at open-ended bond funds or exchange-traded funds that have large bond holdings.

The office — an arm of the U.S. Treasury Department — talks about the potential effects of the rate spike on bond funds and other pillars of the U.S. economy in its annual report to Congress, which covers 2022 and was released Wednesday.

Why It Matters

The Office of Financial Research tries to keep your clients’ retirement savings and other financial assets from crumbling and blowing way.

The History

Members of Congress included the provision creating the office in the Dodd-Frank Act, in an effort to prevent the kinds of little-noticed economic problems that eventually led to the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

What’s New

This year, the office has reorganized the report and included an asset management section alongside the sections on banks and insurance companies.

The office mentions the pension plan investment problems that froze the U.K. government bond markets in September only in a footnote that gives examples of “fire sales,” or examples of situations in which a mismatch between financial institutions’ assets and customers’ demands for cash may lead to exhaust the institutions’ supplies of cash, cause waves of asset sales and destabilize markets.

The office gives less attention to risk at traditional financial institutions in the new report than in the report for 2021, but it does repeat concerns that increased private equity firm involvement in life insurance could lead to problems, and that climate change could hurt property and casualty insurers.

It also talks about the role of “authorized participants,” or outside investment firms that can, but do not have to, step in to help bond ETFs and other ETFs narrow the gap between their net asset value (NAV) figures and the underlying prices of the assets.

“In normal market conditions, the arbitrage mechanism (also referred to as the primary market creation and redemption mechanism) tends to minimize discrepancies between an ETF’s price and its NAV, due to APs’ ability to capture arbitrage profits,” the office says in the report. “However, discounts or premiums can be pronounced during periods of elevated stress.”

In March 2020, when awareness of the gravity of the COVID-19 pandemic spread, “ETF share prices deviated from their net asset values, and the resulting discounts were not arbitraged away by the APs,” the office says. “The discounts to net asset values and investor redemptions persisted until the Federal Reserve intervened on March 23, 2020.”

Fed support did slow bond fund investor redemptions, the office notes.

Open-ended funds and ETFs owned 23% of outstanding corporate debt balances in 2021, up from 9% in 2008, according to Federal Reserve System data cited by the office.

The Office of Financial Research is supposed to help the U.S. Treasury Department track potential threats to the financial stability of the United States. This photo shows a Treasury seal on the outside of the department’s building in Washington. (Photo: Michael A. Scarcella/ALM)


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