Asset Allocation

Behind the Numbers, with Sam Stovall

In an interview with Fox Business early November, Stovall talked about his expectations for the remainder of 2008 and 2009′s first quarter. “We have seen that five of the last nine bear markets have ended in October, and we might actually find now that six of the last ten bear markets ended October,” he said. “But certainly we’re now at entry into the more favorable six month period of the year. November through April tends to outperform May through October by a 7-1 margin going back to 1945 and November, December, and January are the three best performing months of the year, so [there's] a good stretch short term ahead of us likely.” However, he questions whether this is a bear market or simply another resting point like we saw back in March, July, and September. “We saw third quarter GDP decline by 0.3%. If it ends up getting worse, we might find that this is simply a resting point,” he concludes.