It is way too soon to write off President Donald Trump in the upcoming November election, and Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race is not as huge as it seems, according to Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research.
It is “100% true” that Biden is ahead of Trump by 8-10 points in the national polls, Bianco said Tuesday during the Hedgeye webcast “Investing in a Fed-Fueled Speculative Mania.”
Although he predicted Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote, his lead in about 10 battleground states “is three points — not eight to 10” now, Bianco said.
And “it wouldn’t take much for Trump to bottom out and have a resurgence to really make this a horse race” over the next four months, Bianco said, adding that although Trump may still lose, the race is “far from being over right now.”
Also, take the betting markets with a grain of salt when it comes to the outcome of the election because they merely serve as “real-time polls” that “aggregate all the information we know into one probability — they don’t have any special knowledge,” he told host Keith McCullough, CEO and founder of Hedgeye. The betting markets currently give Trump about a 40% chance of winning the election — not exactly impossible odds for him to beat, Bianco said.
“The bottom line is Trump was doing well until about April and he has fallen off quite a bit” since then because “I think people are mad at him,” but he “can make them un-mad” at him, Bianco said. However, he conceded Trump might not be able to accomplish that.
Don’t Count on Economy Roaring Back Quickly
Although Trump apparently sees the economy returning to its pre-pandemic position as a key to his re-election, Bianco predicted that likely won’t be happening anytime soon.