David Kelly, Ph.D./CFA, is the chief global strategist and head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. He also is a regular on CNBC, Bloomberg and other broadcast news outlets.
Investors need to recognize that you can be pessimistic on both the virus and the economy and still see opportunity in U.S. equities.
2020 will be the year of the virus, but 2021 will be the first year of the recovery and 2022 could well see earnings hit an all-time high.
With interest rates on cash and Treasuries down sharply, long-term investors should still think about being overweight equities relative to fixed income.
Trying to figure out what the disease itself is likely to do both in terms of spread and mortality, given current social distancing behavior.
I’m not an epidemiologist, and even epidemiologists will have many problems modeling this, given the number of people with mild or no symptoms, the long incubation period and a lack of testing.
Long-run mortality rates are also very hard to estimate. However, it is these numbers, more than anything else, that will determine whether we have a V-shaped or U-shaped recession, and consequently the impact on investment returns.