Top political analysts continue to predict that Hillary Clinton wins the White House on Tuesday.
Clinton should prevail in Tuesday’s presidential election, but the big question is whether or not Donald Trump concedes, said Andy Friedman of The Washington Update, a day before the election. “I don’t think he will,” Friedman said, “and I think the market volatility will reinsert itself.”
If Trump “continues to agitate, hold rallies and tweet” after the election results, the “markets will be really concerned about that,” Friedman said in an interview Monday with ThinkAdvisor. “I’m not sure the consequences of the election end with the election.”
Indeed, Greg Valliere, chief global strategist for Horizon Investments, predicted Monday that Clinton, “propelled by enormous majorities among women and Hispanics,” wins by 2-to-4 points, “with a surprisingly narrow Electoral College victory, perhaps winning as few as 275 votes without Florida or 304 votes with Florida.”
In his outlook on Tuesday’s results, Valliere notes that while there are “lots of paths to 270” electoral college votes for Clinton, there are “few” for Trump.
Analysts at Washington Analysis predict more generous electoral votes for Clinton — 323 electoral votes vs. 215 for Trump, “which would put the results close to the 332 electoral votes that President Obama received in 2012 vs. 206 for Mitt Romney.”
Clinton, Valliere predicted, will not get close to 332 votes, “as Obama did four years ago, and we think it’s possible she won’t win 50% of the popular vote – the final total might be Clinton 49%, Trump 45%, [Gary] Johnson 4%, [and Jill] Stein 2%. Hardly a mandate for a president-elect who will be under an ethical cloud on several issues from the get-go.”
A Clinton administration will likely be dealing with a Senate controlled by Democrats, but it will be “impossible” for her “bold” tax reform measures, for instance, to get through the Republican-controlled House, Friedman said.
In the Senate, Washington Analysis has 60% odds on a Democrats win of at least the four seats the party needs to take back the Senate: “There are an abnormally large number of tight races this cycle that could break one way or another to give either party control, including Republican-held seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.”
Meanwhile, Washington Analysis believes the “odds are against two other GOP incumbents in Illinois and Wisconsin. Nevada is the only real race up for grabs on the Democrats side, and we give a slight edge to Democrats maintaining control there.”
In the House, the Democrats need to win 30 seats to take back control, according to Washington Analysis, “but we see them winning 15, with 20 being a really good night for the party.”
Like the Obama administration, Clinton would face gridlock, Friedman says, but “for the market that’s fine; I don’t think markets like it when one party can control and do what they want legislatively.”
In the face of future gridlock, Congress may continue to push for closing loopholes in the tax code, as it did earlier this year with a decision to end Social Security benefit strategies, such as file and suspend. “Those are the kinds of things we may see continuing,” with affluent clients possibly losing tax loopholes, he points out.
To get around Congress, Clinton will also likely “try to act by executive order,” as Obama has done. She may take some early action in the areas of pharmaceuticals, Friedman explains, as “she wants to change drug pricing,” and Clinton’s “not a fan of fossil fuels.”