As voters send in their ballots by mail and prepare to go to the polls on Tuesday, equity and other market strategists are sharing their views on what might happen as the results get reported.
Many of them tend to see Hillary Clinton as the more predictable of the two candidates. Thus, if she wins, stocks could rise, and investments that are seen as safe havens – like gold – could weaken.
On the flipside, a Donald Trump win would have the opposite effect, many of them argue.
Here’s a look at what several investment groups are saying about what lies ahead:
1. ETF Securities
“Historically, when the incumbent party remains in the oval office, the S&P 500 index has steadily risen approximately 5% on average,” ETF Securities said Friday. (It looked at 22 elections since 1928.)
“When there is a change in political party, however, selloffs in equities have occurred in the weeks leading up to the election as well as several weeks after the vote,” the group explained.
Overall, U.S. equities tend to be “much more volatile” when there is change in the White House.
As for precious metals, ETF Securities says gold prices might rise by as much as 10% if Trump wins the race for the White House. Gold “could lose up to 6% if Hillary Clinton becomes the country’s first female present,” it adds.
“On average, in the 12 months following a presidential election, gold has risen 10% when there was a change in the political party versus approximately 3% when the incumbent party remained,” ETF Securities stated.
As for the broad economic and specific sector effects of the outcome, “Both candidates have put infrastructure spending as a top focus to help spur the U.S. economy, particularly when the impact of monetary stimulus appears diminishing,” the group explained.
More spending on infrastructure could lead to higher imports and demand for copper, steel, cement, aluminum, petroleum and other industrial commodities. Such a move would boost U.S. manufacturing, materials, transports and energy sectors.
“Additionally, the U.S. labor market could benefit by not only improving the labor participation rate, which has been in structural decline for several decades, but also by creating new jobs in these industries helping drive domestic demand, consumer spending, and inflationary pressures,” ETF Securities added.
If either candidate, once elected, were to embrace more protectionist policies, global trade and investment could be restrained, which would likely “exacerbate global currency volatility, in turn contributing to further investor uncertainty and boosting demand for defensive and safe haven assets such as cash, bonds, and precious metals,” according to the group.
“The tail risks of a Trump victory or a Democratic ‘sweep’ could result in a market correction in the 5 percent range (similar to Brexit), after which the investment community reassess the environment,” Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Tobias Levkovich said in a Nov. 3 note.
Regardless of which candidate wins, Levkovich expects consumer discretionary, energy, financials — especially regional banks — and technology stocks to generally perform well. Materials and real estate should also do well if Trump prevails, according to Levkovich’s analysis.
Equity researchers at Citi also believe the election of either candidate will help the performance of consumer discretionary, energy, financial sector and information technology stocks. Trump, though, also could boost the results of the materials and real-estate sectors.
On the downside, both of them are likely to have a negative impact on health-care investments.
According to JPMorgan (JPM) analysts, a Clinton win should move the S&P 500 Index up about 3% to roughly 2,150. The European and emerging market stock markets could jump by a similar level, according to Mislav Matejka and colleagues, who published a note on Monday.
“We believe that if Trump wins, markets are likely to fall further — one should not use the Brexit template where stocks bounced quickly,” they explained. (After the British vote to leave the EU, shares fell but then rebounded soon afterwards.)
Drug-price regulation with Clinton in office could hurt pharmaceutical and biotech stocks, while leisure and hospitality firm might also be negatively affected by moves to raise the minimum wage, according to the JPMorgan report.
Analysts with this investment house agree with the Citi on one point: A Clinton victory should push the S&P up by about 2-3%.
They view a Trump win, though, very negatively: His victory should lead to a 10-13% decline, according to global equity strategist Keith Parker.
“We see the U.S. election as first a risk-off/on event initially that has the greatest effect on equities/rates given the uncertainty,” he said.
Parker and colleagues also expect the macro impact of the election to affect currencies “and to a lesser extent commodities.” It may also affect certain industries over the time the elected president is in office and “agendas are implemented.”
As for sectors, the Barclays team says health care may underperform by 2 to 3% with Clinton in office, while transportation firms involved in trade with Mexico could suffer under Trump.