Fidelity says less than 20% of advisors surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in September. Still, nearly two-thirds, or 62%, see the Fed hiking rates by year-end, and almost one-third, or 32%, think the hike will be delayed until the first quarter of 2016.
If and when rates are raised, most advisors, 78%, expected the uptick to be 0.25%, or 25 basis points. Only 16% see the hike as being 0.50%.
As for how many hikes the Fed will make, 44% believe the Fed will raise rates quarterly until a target rate is hit, while 40% anticipate the Fed to raise rates twice a year.
Though 37% of reps polled believe rates won’t go above 1% this cycle, about 20% view rates as likely to level off between about 1% and 1.5%, according to Fidelity.
What could work against a rate hike?
A majority of advisors, 56%, point to global factors as the main reason for the Fed to delay a rate increase. Other factors include weak payroll growth and weak inflation growth.
Even more advisors, 67%, say their clients are “concerned about the impact of increasing interest rates on their fixed-income portfolios,” states Fidelity. However, just 11% of reps view their clients as “extremely concerned.”
Fidelity’s survey took place online from Aug. 10 to 21 and included responses from 250 advisors.
Close to half, 48%, of advisors expect to respond to a rate hike by reducing the duration of their clients’ fixed-income holdings, and about one-fourth, 24%, could reallocate some fixed-income holdings to equities.
— Check out Goldman: Stocks to Own, Avoid When the Fed Is Hiking Rates on ThinkAdvisor.