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J.P. Morgan strategist David Kelly.

Portfolio > Economy & Markets

Buy These Stocks After Rout: JPMorgan’s Kelly

By Natalia Kniazhevich

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The latest leg down in U.S. stocks coupled with a solid earnings season so far has dropped S&P 500 company valuations closer to historical averages.

The combination provides an opening for investors to consider value stocks, according to JPMorgan Asset Management’s David Kelly.

The chief global market strategist is still wary of big tech stocks though, as the group’s price-to-earnings ratio remains elevated relative to history.

The S&P 500 has tumbled 10% from its July peak, and companies in the index are on track to report 2.1% profit growth for the third quarter. That’s brought the P/E ratio of the index toward 20, compared with a long-term average of more than 16.

Remove the 10 biggest companies from the calculus — mostly big tech — and the P/E sits at 15.6. The 10 heavyweights have a combined value of 26-times projected earnings, some 131% above their long-term average.

Chart showing recent stock movement from JPMorgan Source: JPMorganWhere to Focus

Where to Focus

While Kelly recommends considering value stocks — a cohort that looks relatively cheap compared with fundamentals — he’s not saying it’s a slam dunk decision, given the headwinds from higher interest rates and geopolitical turmoil.

“The opportunity in the U.S. equities is looking better than for quite some time,” Kelly said in a phone interview. “You just have to have the guts to get in.”

A runup in U.S. Treasury yields sapped demand for risk assets. Profits for companies in the index had fallen for two straight quarters through June.

While the big companies have always had a higher valuation multiple, the gap between them and the rest of the market has grown too much, Kelly said.

“I would rather underweight mega caps, overweight value and and just allow inflation to come down,” he said. Within sectors, he prefers energy and financials.

Valuations Shrink as Stocks Head for Third Monthly Slide | Price-to-Earnings ratio for S&P 500 Growth vs. Value Indexes

JPM’s call on inflation is that it will come down to 2% by the fourth quarter of 2024. If it doesn’t damages the economy significantly, some of those cheapest sectors can do better, said Kelly.

As for small caps, Kelly said he’s “still nervous” because almost half of companies in the Russell 2000 Index “aren’t actually making a profit.”

The index is trading near a level last seen in October 2020, it’s 10% below its longer term 200-day moving average and 75% of the Russell 2000 constituents are already in bear markets.

It’s too early to get to small caps with the threat of recession looming over the economy. “I’d rather get in after we’ve seen a certain amount of economic disruption,” he said.

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