Podcast Center
Video Center
Webcasts
Resource Center
Events
February 06, 2023 at 03:09 PM
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the risk of a U.S. recession is receding amid a persistently strong jobs market and signs of improving business sentiment.
The Goldman team led by Jan Hatzius cut its estimate for the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 35%.
By contrast, Bloomberg’s survey of economists last month pointed to a 65% chance of a downturn within that time. Historically the typical chance of a recession in any 12-month period is roughly 15%.
“Continued strength in the labor market and early signs of improvement in the business surveys suggest that the risk of a near-term slump has diminished notably,” Hatzius wrote.
Employers added more than half a million jobs in January, well above expectations, according to data published Friday.
Goldman also pointed to a rapid slowdown in inflation, and wage growth that’s cooling down toward a level that’s compatible with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
