Bob Doll Grades His 10 Predictions for 2022

As a “year for the history books” draws to a close, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer Bob Doll reported Monday that the firm appears to have been on the mark with most of its 2022 market and economic predictions.

“After stocks and bonds both declined for each of the first three quarters — not seen in 50 years — the fourth quarter rally was welcome,” he wrote in a report released Monday. “The rise in interest rates and compression in equity valuations stemmed from the worst inflation in 40 years, even as earnings estimates improved for the first six months of the year.”

Current circumstances indicate the firm will be correct in 7.5 of 10 predictions, consistent with its 7.0 to 7.5 long-term average, Doll wrote.

“Looking ahead to 2023, the big investment question is whether or not the U.S. experiences a recession. We think that call will depend on whether the Fed sticks to its goal of a 2% inflation rate — which will require more tightening and cause a recession with high probability — or acquiesces to a 3-4% rate,” in which case a soft landing may be possible, Doll wrote.

“In either event, earnings estimates are too high which probably puts a lid on significant upside to equities,” added Doll, who plans to release his 2023 predictions on Dec. 30.

See the gallery for how Doll and Crossmark’s 2022 predictions fared.

(Photo of Bob Doll: Bloomberg; Illustration: Chris Nicholls/ALM)