5 Keys to the presidential race

Americans’ overall mood about the state of the country is not favorable for an incumbent seeking re-election, given that a president’s re-election partly depends on voters’ satisfaction with his first four years in office. “About one-quarter of Americans, 24 percent, are currently satisfied with the way things are going in the country, while 74 percent are dissatisfied,” according to the latest Gallup numbers. These numbers are most comparable to the negative mood Americans had during the 1992 campaign. However, the numbers have begun to swing to the positive, more than doubling where they were in August and September of last year. 

Americans are slightly more likely to say Romney would do a very good or good job of handling the economy than to say this about Obama, and are more likely to say the economy will be in better shape during the next four years if Romney is elected than if Obama is elected.

Although the economy is the dominant election issue, Americans do not view economic problems monolithically. “Obama is seen as better able than Romney to handle health-care costs, college costs and living standards of the poor,” says Gallup, while “Romney is preferred for handling economic growth, the federal budget deficit and debt, and improving returns on personal investments.” 

As the Gallup piece surmises, this election cycle will have many twists and turns along the way, any one of which could sway the outcome. We’ll return soon with more election coverage. If you have opinions you’d like to share, please add a comment below or email me at [email protected].