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SIFMA Forecast: Rising Treasury Issuance

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SIFMA’s “Quarterly Government Securities Issuance and Rates Forecast,” a survey of trading strategists and research analysts in SIFMA’s Government Securities Research, Analysis and Strategy Committee, forecasts net Treasury issuance to be $446 billion in the third quarter–higher than the $343 billion that the Treasury issued in bills, notes and bonds for the second quarter of 2009.

Participants indicated that benchmark Treasury yields would be slightly higher at year end; the median forecast calls for a 10-year Treasury yield of 3.70% at the end of the third quarter and 3.90% at year end. They project a 4.50% yield on the 30-year Treasury at the third quarter-end rising to 4.63% at year end. Survey participants expect the 2-year Treasury to yield 1.05% at the end of the third quarter and 1.23% at year end.