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As usual, in the course of a year a number of issues arise that deserve comment, but not enough to comprise an entire column. Therefore, as we near year’s end I offer these brief thoughts on a number of issues we faced in the past year.

First, I wonder what kind of advice those clever financial advisors and writers who encouraged people to keep the mortgages on their homes at maximum, are now giving? Slogans like “put the equity in your home to work for you” and “release your equity for investment” were in common use not many months ago. Mortgage brokers were “selling” refinancing as home values rose so that the equity could be put to use. It sounded a lot like “buy term and invest the difference,” a popular concept with financial writers, most of whom are journalists, not economists.

I never bought that idea and instead encouraged people who would listen to make extra principal payments on their mortgage every month. It is so easy in the early years to double or triple monthly principal payments. From personal experience I can tell you that there is nothing quite so satisfying as arriving at retirement without a mortgage on your home.

The bursting of the housing bubble, which also helped bring down the stock market, once again demonstrates that leverage is a sword that cuts both ways. My own belief is that a person’s home is the last thing that should be exposed to the risks of leveraged investments. But then we have been through a period when the fruits of speculation have had more appeal than the fruits of labor. It reminds me of the Chinese proverb, “Man must sit with mouth open for long time before roast duck fly in.”

In a related way, hedge funds have also contributed to today’s economic malaise. They have enabled well-heeled investors to do collectively what they could not do individually; that is, circumvent the margin requirements on investments. Margin requirements were put in place to avoid a disastrous crash like that of 1929. But as noted economist John Kenneth Galbraith observed, “Financial memory lasts only 20 or 30 years.” And so, with creative financial products we find ways to violate the spirit of regulation that was put in place to avoid disaster.

On another front, where is the magic in federal regulation? Between 1980 and 1990, 747 federally regulated savings & loan institutes failed at a cost to the government of $124.6 billion. S&L investors lost additional billions and home construction fell to the lowest level since World War II. Sound familiar? Substitute banks and investment banks and it’s like reading today’s newspaper.

On Sunday, November 16, Treasury Secretary Paulson was interviewed on Fox TV. One of the questions asked was whether or not loans would be available to insurers if they needed them. He replied that the answer was “no,” because insurers were not federally regulated and therefore the Treasury had no way to evaluate the risk. (AIG did not receive help as an insurer but as a federally regulated holding company.) It was pointed out that several insurance companies had purchased a thrift organization, making them a “bank holding company” and would this make them eligible for help? My impression was that the Secretary was not enthusiastic about the idea.

Another idea that seems to be gaining traction in some circles is the notion that we need to do more by way of “wealth redistribution.” I don’t remember where I read the following but I believe it sheds a bit of light on the concept of distributing wealth.

A father was concerned about his teenage son’s fascination with the idea of spreading wealth around more. Father to the son, “You are making all A’s in school but many of your friends are only earning C’s. Why don’t you give them some of your A’s and then you will all be B students?” Son to the father, “No way.” So much for wealth distribution.

“‘Tis an ill wind that blows no good.” In my view there is at least a little good blowing today. The credit crunch is drying up funds available to purchase life settlements, good and bad ones. Some hedge funds have pulled out of the market altogether, according to the Wall Street Journal. Others have cut their purchases in half and the price for a settlement is falling. Some reduction in price is caused by new mortality studies that show a longer life expectancy than previously assumed. I am well aware that occasionally a life settlement serves a useful purpose, but I do not believe they serve the long-term best interests of either the public or the insurance business.

The November issue of Smithsonian magazine carried an interesting article about the election of President Lincoln. I quote from the article, “Despite the lingering uncertainty, Lincoln had done nothing public to advance his own cause. Prevailing political tradition called for silence from presidential candidates. In earlier elections nominees who had defied custom appeared desperate and invariably lost. Worried that Lincoln might be tempted to resume politicking, W.C. Bryant, editor of the pro-Republican New York Evening Post bluntly reminded him–make no speeches, write no letters as a candidate, enter into no pledges, make no promises, nor even give any of those kind words men are apt to interpret as promises. Lincoln obliged.”

My how times have changed!


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