What You Need to Know
- It will take millions of lost jobs before the Fed pauses interest rate hikes and starts cutting, the Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO said.
- Brown says investors should accept that low interest rates and inflation are not returning soon.
- It will take a while to feel interest rate hikes' full effects, Brown said.
The U.S. economy has entered a new paradigm and won’t soon return to low interest rates and inflation, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown, who predicted Wednesday it will take substantial job losses for the Federal Reserve to consider pivoting from its rate hiking program.
“It’s, ‘Be careful what you wish for.’ Are you sure you’re looking for rate cuts? Do you have any idea what those rate cuts would have to be accompanied by? Do you have any idea what the trigger for those rate cuts might be?” Brown said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”
“That’s why you’re seeing this market-wide preference for stocks that do not necessarily need a Fed pivot. That’s why you’re seeing the value versus growth regime stay in force,” he added.
It will take “millions of people losing their job” for the Fed to pause its rate hikes and start talking about rate cuts, Brown said. “That’s the trigger, 4.5% unemployment, maybe,” he said.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last month that the unemployment rate in November was unchanged at 3.7%; updated jobs data is scheduled to be released Friday.