The economy and markets were already challenged before the Russia-Ukraine war and that has only enhanced market volatility, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and John Bilton, the firm’s head of global multi-asset strategy.
During a conference call with investors on Wednesday, they discussed the economic and investment outlook for multi-asset portfolios for the rest of 2022 and beyond.
Echoing comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell earlier in the day, while raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point, Kelly agreed that we are in an “extraordinarily challenging and uncertain moment.”
“It’s horrible watching what’s going on” in Ukraine, Kelly said, calling it “unnerving to have Russia involved in this, given its nuclear capabilities.” The war has just “added further uncertainty to markets because we’ve got, of course, the effect of the conflict itself and then also the effect of very strong Western sanctions against Russia and what that does for commodity markets,” he explained.
During “the course of this invasion” already, “we’ve seen a big spike up in commodity prices,” Kelly noted. “Now we have seen oil prices come down again in the last week because of indications that Europe is not going to immediately ban Russian energy and also the possibility that, of course, China could buy Russian oil,” he added.
There is, however, “still a lot of uncertainty and we just don’t know how this conflict in Ukraine will play out,” he said.
Check out the slideshow above to see the 10 top predictions made by Kelly and Bilton on the call.