Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, said the economy has 60% chance of falling into a recession next year.
“We’re not going to have a fiscal stimulus,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television. “We’re going to have a fiscal drag and therefore the short-term effect of a rally in the market is going to fizzle out when the real economy is going to go and tank. We’re entering a recession based on my numbers.”
Separately, Bloomberg quotes Roubini from an interview with the Rome-based newspaper La Repubblica, in which he says he doesn’t expect the austerity plan passed by the government to enable Italy to meet the goal of a balanced budget in 2013.
“Italy has to raise its growth potential through structural reforms to correct the public finances and it thus needs political stability and strong consensus,” the paper cited Roubini as saying.