Behind the Numbers with Jeffrey Kleintop
“We expect the economy and markets will stay on the course for growth in 2010,” according to LPL Financial’s mid-year forecast published in July. “We are maintaining our forecasts for the year: U.S. economy grows 3-4%, with growth slowing in the second half of the year to a below average 2% to 3%; stocks post modest single-digit gains on solid earnings growth, accompanied by high volatility; bonds post flat-to-mid single-digit gains as rates begin to slowly rise. While consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of GDP, and government spending have already surpassed their pre-recession peaks and are now firmly in recovery mode, not every area of the economy has recovered. For example, the United States economy shed nearly 8.5 million private sector jobs between December 2007 and December 2009. Through May 2010, the private sector of the economy has only added 500,000 jobs back.
“Exports, business capital spending, housing construction, and spending on commercial real estate also remain below their pre-recession highs, but most if not all of these categories of spending are on track to surpass that important milestone in the coming months and quarters. For example, the return of global trade has led to a surge in U.S. exports since the end of the recession in the summer of 2009. The surge in exports in turn has led to a sharp rebound in business capital spending and inventory restocking.”–John Sullivan
View the entire Asset Allocation page from the August issue here.