Bob Doll Checks In On His 10 Predictions for 2023

If the Federal Reserve insists on wrestling inflation to the central bank’s 2% target, there’s no way the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, Bob Doll, chief investment officer of Crossmark Global Investments, said on a quarterly webcast Wednesday.

The 2% inflation the economy experienced for a decade was pretty abnormal, he said, adding that inflation in the U.S. is more naturally in the 3% neighborhood now. Recent labor agreements will make it hard to break inflation, with higher wages becoming more imbedded into the system, he suggested.

The CIO expects a mild recession to start before year end and considers earnings estimates and stock valuations to be too high, although price-to-earnings multiples have fallen some.

Doll gave a third-quarter report card on his 10 predictions for 2023, noting that five appear headed in the right direction, two in the wrong direction and three either too soon or too close to call.

See the gallery for Doll’s latest report on his 2023 predictions.

Bob Doll Checks In On His 10 Predictions for 2023

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1. The U.S. experiences a shallow recession as real GDP is in bottom 10 of last 50 years.

2. Inflation falls substantially but remains above Fed target.

3. The federal funds rate reaches 5% and remains there for the balance of the year.

4. Earnings fall short of expectations in 2023 due to cost pressures and revenue shortfalls.

5. No major asset class is up or down by a double-digit percentage for only the fourth time this century.

6. Energy, consumer staples and financials outperform utilities, technology and communication services as value beats growth.

7. The average active equity manager beats the index in 2023.

8. International stocks outperform the U.S. for the second year in a row, for the first time since 2006-2007.

9. India surpasses China as the world’s largest population and is the fastest growing large economy.

10. A double-digit number of candidates announce for president.

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Bob Doll Checks In On His 10 Predictions for 2023

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1. The U.S. experiences a shallow recession as real GDP is in bottom 10 of last 50 years.

2. Inflation falls substantially but remains above Fed target.

3. The federal funds rate reaches 5% and remains there for the balance of the year.

4. Earnings fall short of expectations in 2023 due to cost pressures and revenue shortfalls.

5. No major asset class is up or down by a double-digit percentage for only the fourth time this century.

6. Energy, consumer staples and financials outperform utilities, technology and communication services as value beats growth.

7. The average active equity manager beats the index in 2023.

8. International stocks outperform the U.S. for the second year in a row, for the first time since 2006-2007.

9. India surpasses China as the world’s largest population and is the fastest growing large economy.

10. A double-digit number of candidates announce for president.

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