To Win in September, Stick to the Game Plan: Searching for Alpha for September 2016

Stocks meandered for the last half of August, mainly due to concerns that better than expected economic conditions will lead to a September rate hike by the Fed (watch for the August jobs numbers on Friday for more clarity on that likelihood).  

Not only are we coming into September – typically the worst month of the year for stocks – but we’re also facing an incredibly active central bank calendar. With the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed all releasing minutes or making comments, it leaves little doubt that this month will be, if anything, less mundane than August. 

So what happens if the bogeyman – in the form of higher interest rates – actually makes an appearance?  

First, it’s important to note that stocks perform admirably during rising rate periods – in fact, their return during rising and falling rates are virtually identical. So if there is a meaningful short-term pullback, the best option is portfolio rebalancing.  

Second, one should remember that the reason why there are so many doom and gloom commentaries is that bad news outsells good news.