I think it will be hard to know exactly where the gaps in our knowledge of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2012 (PPACA) lie until all of PPACA that will get up and running is up and running.
The analysts at the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, Menlo Park, Calif., tried to look at the effect of misconceptions about PPACA on consumers’ views about PPACA by determining how poll participants’ views changed when survey workers gave the participants information about PPACA.
The Kaiser analysts tried to look, for example, at what consumers are thinking about a PPACA provision that calls for some individuals who fail to have a minimum level of health coverage to make payments to the federal government starting with the 2014 tax year.
Congress called the provision a fine, not a tax.
When the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the PPACA individual mandate provision in June, it made a point of calling the provision a tax.
About 66% of the U.S. residents polled this month said they oppose the payment if it’s called a fine, and 61% said they oppose the payment if it’s a tax, Kaiser analysts report.
The Kaiser analysts say they think consumers are confused about how many people could really end up owing inadequate health insurance payments.
“According to the poll, nearly one in five Americans is under the impression that they will be subject to the penalty in 2014,” the Kaiser analysts say. “Meanwhile, experts estimate that substantially fewer—roughly 1 in 10 Americans—will find themselves in the position of deciding between obtaining health coverage or paying the penalty. Since some portion of this group will decide to purchase health insurance, the subset that does end up subject to the tax penalty will be smaller than 1 in 10. The public opinion bottom line: a substantial number of people are anticipating a financial hit that will never come.”
On the one hand: Whether you love PPACA or hate it, Kaiser runs a great health policy website. When I was at the National Association of Health Underwriters’ annual convention in Las Vegas in June, it seemed as if many speakers who are not big fans of PPACA used Kaiser survey data. And the Kaiser analysts’ are probably using reasonable estimates when they suggest that the number of people who would pay a PPACA no-insurance penalty would be much smaller than the number who are afraid that they might have to pay the no-insurance penalty.