A new report from the Congressional Budget Office drives the stake deeper into the social safety net’s heart. Spending on Social Security, Medicare and other health care programs will increase to about 16 percent of GDP in the next 25 years, if current laws are not changed. Currently, spending is about 10 percent.

The CBO’s estimate includes the effects of the new health reform law. The Office doesn’t expect to see a reduction in spending as a result of reform for another 20 years.

“Although, CBO expects the legislation to reduce federal budget deficits over the first 10 years and in subsequent decades (through its effects on both revenues and spending), it is expected to increase federal spending in the next 10 years and for most of the following decade; by 2030, however, that legislation will slightly reduce federal spending for health care if all of its provisions are fully implemented, CBO projects.”