While he has been consistently bullish on bonds, Gary Shilling’s allocation to that sector is now almost double the panel’s average. “Since May stocks have basically gone nowhere and bonds have been rallying,” he says. Shilling notes that economic stimuli from tax cuts and defense spending have already been absorbed and that the recession normally experienced in the first or second year after a Presidential election could be compounded by a rise in interest rates. And then there’s oil pricing and terrorism. “Put all that together and the outlook for stocks is not all that rosy, and what’s bad for stocks is good for bonds, Treasuries in particular.” –Robert F. Keane
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