Revenue-related pension provisions in H.R. 4213, the House jobs bill, could put the government budget $720 million ahead in 2011 but cost about $1.4 billion in 2019.
Analysts at the Joint Committee on Taxation, an arm of Congress that helps members of Congress analyze the effects of proposed legislation on government finances, have published those predictions in a review of the possible effects of the revenue provisions in H.R. 4213, the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010, on the federal budget.
The JCT analysts also have prepared a report the gives a detailed description of the H.R. 4213 revenue provisions.
Analysts at the Congressional Budget Office later released an analysis suggesting that the bill as a whole would increase the federal budget deficit by a total of about $59 billion in 2011, have a variable effect from 2012 to 2016, then reduce the deficit by about $3 billion to $5 billion per year starting in 2017.
THE JCT ANALYSIS
From fiscal year 2010 to 2015, the provisions could put the government ahead by $5.6 billion, but the provisions would start costing the government money in 2017, the JCT analysts say.
From 2010 to 2020, the provisions would put the government ahead only $2 billion, the JCT analysts estimate.
Proposed defined contribution plan fee disclosure rules would have only a negligible revenue effect, and provisions relating to multiemployer defined benefit pension plans would have an effect of less than $100 million in most years, the JCT analysts estimate.
The provisions with the biggest effect, which relate to funding rules changes for single-employer pension plans, could make highly variable changes in the federal budget, the JCT analysts suggest.
The provisions could put the government ahead $777 million in 2011 and $1.6 billion in 2012, but the positive effect might start to shrink in 2013, and, taken together, the provisions could cost the government $134 million in 2017, and they might cost the government $1.4 billion in 2020, the JCT analysts predict.
If adopted, the single-employer provisions would let employers that sponsor defined benefit plans take more time to fund the plans.
H.R. 4213 also includes a provision that could affect taxation of regulated investment company stock held in the estates of nonresident non-citizens. The provision, in Section 227 of the bill, would have no revenue effect, according to JCT analysts.
THE CBO ANALYSIS
The CBO analysts estimate the pension relief provisions would reduce direct federal spending by about $100 million per year starting in 2012, and by a total of about $820 million from 2010 to 2019.
Medicare physician reimbursement rate provisions would increase the deficit by about $23 billion from 2010 to 2012, then have no effect in later years, if implemented as written, the CBO analysts predict.
Insurers are trying to change the retirement plan fee disclosure sections in H.R. 4213.