Despite a presidential election that remained undecided as of early Wednesday afternoon, political analysts prognosticated what a Biden administration and split Congress would mean for a stimulus package, health care and the markets.
As of this writing early Wednesday afternoon, a live Wall Street Journal poll showed that former Vice President Joe Biden was in the lead, with 238 electoral votes compared with President Donald Trump’s 214 votes. The winner needs 270 votes.
Biden has received 70 million votes, the most of any presidential candidate in U.S. history.
Biden, as noted by Raymond James analysts in their Wednesday morning briefing, “is the only candidate to flip an Electoral College vote from 2016, by winning Arizona (the Trump campaign contests that Biden has won).”
Several states remain too close to call, the Raymond James analysts note. “Trump is leading in the votes counted thus far in GA, MI, PA, and NC while Biden leads in NV and WI,” the Raymond James analysts wrote. “The winner of two of the following – MI, PA, or WI – likely wins the presidency.”
Biden prevailed in Wisconsin and Maine, NBC News reported Wednesday. Just before noon the Wisconsin Elections Commission said all of the ballots had been counted and Biden won by 20,697 votes, NBC News reported.
The Trump campaign, however, said it would ask for a recount in Wisconsin; the state holds 10 electoral votes. At stake in Michigan are 16 electoral votes and in Pennsylvania, 20.
Final counts in these key states “could take several days (if not weeks) to decide, and the president declared he will take this to the Supreme Court,” the analysts added.
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. strategist for AGF Investments, said in his Wednesday morning email briefing that “a big story for the financial markets” is the likelihood that the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.
“This will lead to gridlock with the liberal House — and as a result, market-unfriendly tax hikes could stall in 2021,” he said.
The Senate result, however, “has been obscured by the threat of litigation and uncertainty, even though the Supreme Court recently has deferred to state legislatures on issues like last night’s vote counts,” Valliere stated.
If Biden wins, “his presidency would be hamstrung” by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky, who won reelection Tuesday, along with the Senate Republicans, Valliere opined.
Biden “could toughen regulations that Trump has eased, but any major legislative accomplishments would be unlikely.”