Global retirement assets will increase by a compounded annual growth rate of 7 percent to 2018, according to a new report.
Cerulli Associates makes this prediction in “Global Markets 2014: Clarity and Consolidation in the Quest for Assets.” Now in its 13th iteration, the study examines trends in both institutional and retails markets globally.
The 523-page report reveals that the U.S., U.K and Australia remain the chief markets among 27 countries for retirement assets, the U.S. share of the pie totaling $2.1 trillion. Retirement assets fell in value during the period examined in only four markets.
“A CAGR of 7 [percent] globally to 2018 is reassuringly predictable in uncertain times,” says Ken Yap, director at Cerulli Associates. “But managers tackling the European and U.K. retirement industries should expect further political intervention into systems.”
By investment objective, the report forecasts that equities will remain the primary assets under management in 2018 (41.8 percent), down only a few percentage points from equities’ market share in recent years.
Excepting bonds (26.4 percent), no other asset class —money markets, balanced funds, alternative products or other investments — is expected to have an AUM in the double-digits in 2018.
By distribution channel, the Cerulli report reveals the U.S. market for mutual fund AUM in 2013 to be highly fragmented —some 11 markets, more than half with AUM in the low single digits. Among them: independent broker-dealers, registered investment advisors, dually registered advisors and insurance broker-dealers.
The report finds less fragmentation in Canada and Asia (7 distribution channels), Latin America (6 channels) and Europe (3 channels). By region, the U.S. also retains the lion’s share of mutual fund industry net revenue (over half the total).