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June 01, 2014 at 08:25 AM
Equity markets worldwide rose for a fourth month, a rout in technology shares was erased and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a record in May as economic growth picked up and tensions between Ukraine and Russia eased.
The MSCI All-Country World Index jumped 1.8% and touched the highest level in more than six years. Emerging markets led gains in stocks as benchmark indexes in India, Russia, Hungary and Argentina jumped at least 8%. The S&P 500 added 2.1% as investors returned to technology stocks and sent Apple Inc. shares up 7.3%.
Forecasts for a rebound in U.S. growth in the second quarter and stimulus from central banks in Japan and Europe, along with higher-than-estimated corporate earnings, helped send the value of global shares to a record $64 trillion. Russia has pulled back most of its troops from the border with Ukraine, a U.S. defense official said on May 30, as government forces continued a campaign to wipe out separatist rebels.
“The market to some extent has built up expectations for a strong second half of the year,” Jim Russell, a senior equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $120 billion, said by phone from Minneapolis. “Many people entered May with Russia on their minds and with sluggish economic indicators on their minds, and it really hasn’t turned out that way.”
The S&P 500 climbed to an all-time high of 1,923.57 to end the month after shrugging off a report showing the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years during the first quarter. A pickup in receipts at retailers, stronger manufacturing and faster job growth indicate the first-quarter setback will prove temporary as pent-up demand is unleashed.
Adverse Weather
Federal Reserve policy makers said at their April meeting that the economy has strengthened after adverse weather took its toll. Central-bank stimulus has helped propel the S&P 500 higher by as much as 184% from its bear-market low in March 2009.
“I don’t think the market is trading irrationally right now, but a lot of people assume that given the bull market run we’ve seen, there should be a pullback,” Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer of Hennion & Walsh Asset Management in Parsippany, N.J., said in a phone interview. His firm oversees more than $600 million. “I point to the economic data that suggests I can make a more plausible argument for upside than a significant downside.”
Economic reports in the coming week include data on factory orders and car sales, as well as the government’s monthly payrolls report on June 6.
Tech Recovery
The S&P 500 has rebounded 5.9% since a selloff in small-cap and Internet shares spread to the broader market and dragged the gauge to a two-month low in April. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index climbed 4.3% in May to erase its declines during that period.
Netflix Inc. rallied 30% for the largest May gain in the S&P 500 and TripAdvisor Inc. climbed 20% as the Dow Jones Internet Composite Index rebounded after an almost 20% drop from a 13-year high. Tiffany & Co. soared 14% after profit beat analyst estimates.
Of the 492 companies in the U.S. benchmark equity gauge that have released earnings for last quarter, 74% have reported better-than-expected profit and 53% said revenue exceeded estimates in the period.
The S&P 500 is trading at 16.3 times estimated earnings. That’s below valuations from the market’s previous two peaks, when the ratio reached 16.7 in October 2007 and 26.3 in March 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Global Equities
