Jeremy Siegel’s Math Puts Dow at 18,000 Next Year: Epstein

We’re used to grandiose predictions for the Dow that never quite seem to pan out (see Jim Glassman’s Dow 36,000, Harry Dent’s Dow 40,000 or even Charles Kadlec’s Dow 100,000). But when they come from someone like Jeremy Siegel and are credibly within reach, it might be worth a look.

Gene Epstein of Barron’s takes a look at the hard numbers and makes a strong case for reaching the milestone. He also cites Siegel, famed finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, in his calculations.

“Even with the Dow reaching a record 14,539.14 …the performance of the market over the past five years is still below par,” Epstein argues. “That bodes well for the bulls. Lower-than-average returns over five years are generally followed by higher-than-average returns over the following two years.”

Accordingly, he claims the Dow has a four-in-five chance to be “flat or higher by year-end 2014, and a 50-50 chance of approaching 18,000 over the same time frame.”