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August 14, 2012 at 10:59 AM
As the presidential race heats up with Mitt Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate, recent polls from the Financial Services Institute (FSI) and LPL Financial have reached vastly different conclusions about whether the Republicans will beat President Obama in November.
In a poll released Tuesday, the FSI reported that 53% of nearly 2,400 independent financial advisors believe Romney will win the presidency while 47% of advisors picked incumbent Barack Obama. However, when asked to pick their favorite candidate, 81% of respondents cited Romney.
LPL Financial’s most recent weekly Wall Street Election Poll, released Aug. 9, reflected a shift toward the Democrats. The market-based poll highlights what the stock market is pricing in about the outcome of the presidential elections in key industrial sectors. After a surge for the Democrats in June, July marked a drift back toward the Republicans before leaning toward the Democrats again in August.
“Over the past week, the overall market rose,” LPL Financial’s research team wrote in the Aug. 9 report. “Losses in electric utilities and telecom weighed on the Republican index, while solid gains in the Democrat-favored health care facilities and homebuilders industries boosted the Democrat index.”
FSI’s advisors named the economy as the top issue influencing their vote for president, with 63% saying it was more important than the national debt, health care or defense. They also predicted that Republicans will take control of the Senate, capital gains taxes will increase, and equities and the economy will hold steady for the remainder of 2012.
