Editor's Choice for October 5, 2009: Market-Moving News for This Week

The unemployment rate hit 9.8% in September, the Labor Department reported last week, prompting concern not only that the weak recovery may be a jobless one, but also speculation that the rate will continue to go higher. One of those speculating was former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on television; he said he expects 3% growth in the third quarter of 2009 but that unemployment would hit 10%.

In Istanbul, where the G7 meeting over the weekend preceded the International Monetary Fund meeting of this week, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner issued a statement saying that the recovery was “fragile,” and that “while global growth is forecast to accelerate in 2010, output gaps will persist, unemployment may rise further, and downside risks remain.”

This week brings the Federal Reserve’s August consumer credit report on October 7; September retail sales for major chain stores on October 8, which are expected to cast a predictive light on 2009 holiday sales–the consensus outlook is not rosy; initial jobless claims on October 8; and on October 9 the BEA’s trade deficit numbers–it’s expected to widen to $33 billion from $32 billion in July.