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Portfolio > ETFs > Broad Market

Is the Rally Out of Sync with Reality?

By Simon Maierhofer, Simon Maierhofer

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From their March lows, the major US stock benchmarks have rallied some 50 percent. At current levels, investors are wondering whether this is the beginning of a new bull market or just another head fake. Could history repeat itself? After the initial decline during the Great Depression, the Dow rallied 48 percent before dropping like a stone.

There surely is not shortage of personalities proclaiming that a new bull market has started or that, at the very least, a deeper recession has been avoided. The Wall Street Journal touted on July 23rd, “The Economy Has Hit Bottom.” A recent survey of economists revealed that 90 percent of all economists believe that the recession has ended in the second quarter of 2009.

You can’t help but wonder where all those geniuses were in March. If my memory serves me right, the doomsday atmosphere surrounding the March lows permeated Wall Street as well as economists. “The worst is still to come” was the outlook then.

Unlike trend chasing gurus and economists, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter sent out a Trend Change Alert on March 2nd, preparing investors for the onset of the biggest rally since the October all-time highs. The minimum forecast for this intense and powerful rally was 30 – 40 percent. The alert further stated that the top of this rally (between Dow 9,000 – 10,000) would be market by extreme levels of optimism and a “the worst is over” attitude.

This forecast certainly has been more than fulfilled. Wall Street seems to ignore, even withhold from Main Street, that extreme levels of investor optimism usually foreshadow trouble ahead. New bull markets climb a wall of worry, they don’t ascent an escalator of hope and euphoria. Once the current adrenaline rush subsides, investors will realize that the push from the March lows was nothing more than fluff.

The September issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter contains a forecast for the top of this rally and the ultimate market bottom along with corresponding ETF profit strategies and practical ways to survive and thrive in the upcoming years.

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