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Portfolio > ETFs > Broad Market

Advisor: Recession Will End In Early 2009

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The current recession and bear market may be more than half over, one financial advisor says.

Leon LaBrecque, managing partner and founder of LJPR L.L.C., Troy, Mich., notes that out of the 13 bear markets and 15 recessions America has suffered since 1926, there have been 9 “bear-cessions,” as he calls them. Those are recessions and bear markets that run roughly concurrently.

The bear market almost always outlasts the recession, LaBrecque says.

The current economic downturn is a bear-cession, LaBrecque contends.

Here are some of his observations about the 8 previous bear-cessions:

- The average length of the recession was 14 months.

- The average length of the bear market was 23 months.

- The bear market always preceded the recession, by an average of 7 months.

- When the bear ended before the recession, it usually did so by about 4 months.

- The average decline in the stock market during bear-cessions, in terms of the S&P 500, was negative 39%.

- The average 1-yr return on the S&P 500 after the lowest point of the bear market was positive 46%.

The market peak for the current bear-cession occurred Oct. 20, 2007, and November 2008 was the thirteenth month of the bear market, LaBrecque writes.

Pointing to published estimates that the current recession started around November 2007, LaBrecque says it should be ending 4 months after the bear market ends, or about April 2009.

Excluding the bear-cession that followed the stock market crash of 1929, the average bear market was 20 months, and the average recession was 9 months, LaBrecque writes.


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