How Investors Can Evaluate Muni Bonds in the COVID-19 Economy

With more than 85,000 issuers and approximately 3 million CUSIPs, the municipal bond market can be challenging to navigate in even the calmest economic conditions. At a time like this, when the COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe disruption, volatility and uncertainty, investors and the financial advisors who serve them need to be extremely thorough when evaluating municipal bonds to add to their portfolios.

Looking Into Issuers & Pledges

Bonds can be repaid from many different sources including property taxes, sales taxes, hotel bed taxes, personal income taxes, mortgage revenues, lease payments for use and occupancy of long-lived government assets, and fees for services such as water and sewer.

These repayment sources can come from leases, essential services like water or electricity, or taxes, such as a state sales tax. General obligation bonds (GOs) have stronger protection measures in place for bondholders because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the issuer to tax state or municipality residents to raise money as necessary to pay the debt. Conversely, revenue bonds are backed by pledges of revenue from specific projects, such as hospitals, universities, bridges and toll roads.

All other things being equal, unlimited tax GOs or essential service revenues like water and sewer are generally safer investments. Investors should note that some general obligation bonds can have statutory limitations on their taxing powers, such as a cap on property taxes or the ability to resolve historical delinquencies. Essential service revenue bonds can be subject to dilution of a bond pledge when additional parity debt is authorized and sold. It is important to understand the effect these limitations can have on the creditworthiness of the bond.

A typical strategy for conservative municipal bond investors is to focus on bonds supported by general obligations or essential services and issued by states or municipalities with AAA ratings. While these are certainly healthy characteristics, advisors and investors should also consider additional factors. For example, how diversified is the economy of the state or municipal issuer? Can it successfully withstand extreme market volatility of the type we are currently witnessing? What is the median income of the people who live there? Are there geographic or environmental risks associated with the issuer? How big is the issuer’s market position? (The larger an issuer’s market presence, the wider the audience of prospective buyers, giving their bonds a greater liquidity profile.)

Crucially, are the revenue pledges/obligations of the issuer included as a covenant in the investment contract?

These are all prudent questions to ask when vetting possible municipal bond investments.

Duration and Risk 

During times like this, when people are concerned not just about the overall economy but also their physical well-being, investors can naturally gravitate towards investments with less volatility. Municipal bonds, like any fixed income security, are exposed to interest rate risk and vary in duration. With a fixed coupon bond, the longer the time until bond maturity, the more susceptible investors are to interest rate changes that will affect the value of their investment.