The COVID-19 Map Is Now (Almost) All Green: CDC

COVID-19, and illnesses that are probably COVID-19, are still killing many people in the United States, but the number of new cases showing up in doctors' offices, urgent care clinics and hospital emergency rooms may have fallen to low levels throughout most of the country. Public health specialists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have published data supporting that assessment in their latest weekly COVID-19 report for the week ending May 30. The CDC has based the report on reports submitted by Friday. The CDC emphasizes that many of the figures in the report are incomplete, especially for the latest two weeks. To get around testing problems, the CDC tracks data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 along with data for other illnesses that resemble COVID-19 and influenza. The map the CDC uses to show the outbreak activity level "out in the community" uses colors ranging from deep green, for states with the lowest level of activity, up to maroon, for states with the highest level of activity. Last week, the CDC had no data on the number of new cases cropping up "out in the community" in Idaho. Reports from Wisconsin suggested that the number of new cases was rising to a high level in Wisconsin. This week, the only two states with activity above the lowest level are Idaho and Maryland.

Resources

• The CDC's weekly COVID-19 report is available here.
• The CDC's provisional COVID-19 mortality data table is available here.
• An overview article about the weekly COVID-19 report for the previous week is available here.

But CDC officials say in the new report that there are signs that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, could still flare up in some communities.

Virus Warning Signs

One sign of how much SARS-CoV-2 is still out there is the percentage of patient specimens sent for SARS-CoV-2 testing that turn out to actually show signs of a SARS-CoV-2 infection. The percentage of samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 actually increased in the Southwest, in the South Central region, on the West Coast, and in the Pacific Northwest, officials say. Another concern is that, in most regions, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates for the children tested either held steady or increased, officials say. Fewer than 5% of the children tested for SARS-CoV-2 actually had SARS-CoV-2, but "other age groups have seen consistent declines in percent positivity in recent weeks," officials say. People who die from COVID-19 often take weeks, or months, to die. That means that the number of people dying from COVID-19 now mainly reflects infections that occurred in April or May. COVID-19 and illnesses that could have been COVID-19 accounted for about 8.4% of all deaths in the week ending May 30, according to the very earliest numbers for that week. That's down sharply, from a peak of about 28%, in April, but it's still well above the 6.3% epidemic threshold for the week. Because of the way states submit death data, and the way the CDC processes the data, that measure of epidemic severity may take about a week to firm up. It's possible that the final numbers will show that, for the week ending May 30, COVID-19 and COVID look-alikes continued to be responsible for more than 10% of all deaths.

COVID-19 at the State Level

One concern about the accuracy of the data is that many state and local officials are eager to ease the lockdown rules imposed in an effort to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Some critics of the reopening efforts have accused officials of manipulating outbreak numbers in an effort to hide the severity of the outbreak and accelerate the reopening process. In Florida, for example, public health officials announced Friday that they had recorded 1,305 new cases of COVID-19 that day, bringing the total number to 61,488. In Florida, the ratio of new cases to total cases is about the same as the ratio of new deaths to total deaths. That might be a sign the outbreak is simmering at about the same rate as before. California is continuing to record more than about 2,000 new cases per day. Texas is recording more than 1,500 cases per day. In the United States, about 6% of the people who have contracted confirmed cases of COVID-19 have died. If that ratio continues to hold, The number of new cases being recorded per day in California, Florida and Texas this week could translate into about 300 extra deaths per day in those states two or three months per now.

The Insured Population

One question is how the CDC's figures might relate to the death rate and the disability rate for people who have commercial life insurance, disability insurance and annuities. Richard Bielen, the chief executive officer of Protective Life, talked about an analysis of his company's early COVID-19 death claims Wednesday, at an S&P Global insurance conference Bielen reported that the average age of the insured who died was 79, the average policy age was 24 years, the average death claim was under $150,000, and there were no signs that people had bought coverage because they knew they were at high risk of dying from COVID-19. .

Deaths by Week
United States
Week ending	COVID-19 Deaths	Pneumonia Deaths	Influenza Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Percent of Expected Deaths	COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death
2/1/2020	0	3,732	476	4,208	57,720	97%	6%	7%
2/8/2020	1	3,722	514	4,237	58,324	98%	6%	7%
2/15/2020	0	3,753	543	4,296	57,667	98%	7%	7%
2/22/2020	3	3,624	556	4,182	57,746	99%	6%	7%
2/29/2020	5	3,749	633	4,384	58,110	101%	6%	8%
3/7/2020	32	3,873	618	4,506	58,259	101%	7%	8%
3/14/2020	52	3,868	607	4,499	57,127	100%	7%	8%
3/21/2020	545	4,421	536	5,251	57,679	102%	8%	9%
3/28/2020	3,018	5,992	437	8,033	61,552	110%	10%	13%
4/4/2020	9,412	9,522	460	14,657	69,905	125%	14%	21%
4/11/2020	15,505	11,549	462	20,219	76,068	137%	15%	27%
4/18/2020	16,042	10,754	256	19,998	72,970	135%	15%	27%
4/25/2020	13,685	9,403	141	17,251	68,410	127%	14%	25%
5/2/2020	10,969	7,842	56	14,137	62,593	117%	13%	23%
5/9/2020	9,779	6,912	44	12,567	59,310	112%	12%	21%
5/16/2020	7,322	5,505	18	9,802	53,805	102%	10%	18%
5/23/2020	4,025	3,627	14	5,978	42,438	81%	9%	14%
5/30/2020	1,163	1,519	1	2,212	24,218	46%	6%	9%
Idaho
Week ending	COVID-19 Deaths	Pneumonia Deaths	Influenza Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Percent of Expected Deaths	COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death
2/1/2020	0	11	NA	12	249	96%	4%	5%
2/8/2020	0	18	NA	20	293	116%	6%	7%
2/15/2020	0	11	NA	12	279	98%	4%	4%
2/22/2020	0	17	NA	21	318	84%	5%	7%
2/29/2020	0	17	NA	20	289	88%	6%	7%
3/7/2020	0	17	NA	20	278	104%	6%	7%
3/14/2020	0	18	NA	21	284	89%	6%	7%
3/21/2020	0	22	NA	26	308	110%	7%	8%
3/28/2020	NA	14	NA	20	332	99%	4%	6%
4/4/2020	NA	15	NA	22	271	96%	6%	8%
4/11/2020	22	17	0	34	305	104%	6%	11%
4/18/2020	11	13	0	19	282	103%	5%	7%
4/25/2020	12	15	0	24	261	127%	6%	9%
5/2/2020	NA	13	0	15	251	94%	5%	6%
5/9/2020	NA	NA	NA	13	301	107%	NA	4%
5/16/2020	NA	11	0	15	267	101%	4%	6%
5/23/2020	NA	10	0	15	224	100%	4%	7%
5/30/2020	NA	NA	0	NA	160	96%	NA	NA
New York City
Week ending	COVID-19 Deaths	Pneumonia Deaths	Influenza Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Percent of Expected Deaths	COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death
2/1/2020	0	95	19	114	1,168	102%	8%	10%
2/8/2020	0	95	18	113	1,170	98%	8%	10%
2/15/2020	0	86	14	100	1,130	99%	8%	9%
2/22/2020	0	75	NA	84	1,092	101%	7%	8%
2/29/2020	0	83	NA	89	1,109	102%	7%	8%
3/7/2020	0	92	NA	100	1,112	101%	8%	9%
3/14/2020	NA	104	NA	113	1,133	104%	9%	10%
3/21/2020	122	155	14	248	1,400	134%	11%	18%
3/28/2020	954	597	47	1,201	2,769	269%	22%	43%
4/4/2020	3,073	1,708	211	3,498	6,049	587%	28%	58%
4/11/2020	4,690	2,081	326	4,992	7,691	721%	27%	65%
4/18/2020	3,700	1,476	172	3,840	5,686	559%	26%	68%
4/25/2020	2,377	1,056	78	2,477	3,798	385%	28%	65%
5/2/2020	1,343	634	NA	1,429	2,451	243%	26%	58%
5/9/2020	1,005	466	NA	1,076	2,016	205%	23%	53%
5/16/2020	589	296	0	654	1,542	150%	19%	42%
5/23/2020	368	181	NA	420	1,208	119%	15%	35%
5/30/2020	152	104	0	193	852	102%	12%	23%
Wisconsin
Week ending	COVID-19 Deaths	Pneumonia Deaths	Influenza Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Percent of Expected Deaths	COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death
2/8/2020	0	53	NA	58	1,051	NA	5%	6%
2/15/2020	0	75	12	87	1,123	NA	7%	8%
2/22/2020	0	57	14	71	1,158	NA	5%	6%
2/29/2020	0	54	16	70	1,135	NA	5%	6%
3/7/2020	0	62	16	78	1,114	NA	6%	7%
3/14/2020	0	56	32	88	1,102	NA	5%	8%
3/21/2020	NA	74	19	97	1,109	NA	7%	9%
3/28/2020	18	73	13	103	1,143	NA	6%	9%
4/4/2020	75	89	NA	161	1,214	NA	7%	13%
4/11/2020	76	75	NA	143	1,168	NA	6%	12%
4/18/2020	72	52	NA	114	1,138	NA	5%	10%
4/25/2020	47	55	0	99	1,020	NA	5%	10%
5/2/2020	66	56	0	116	1,140	NA	5%	10%
5/9/2020	55	50	NA	90	1,049	NA	5%	9%
5/16/2020	51	47	NA	89	956	NA	5%	9%
5/23/2020	43	42	0	73	864	NA	5%	8%
5/30/2020	11	19	0	28	526	NA	4%	5%

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Deaths by State (Week ending May 16)
State	COVID-19 Deaths	Pneumonia Deaths	Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths	Total Deaths	Percent of Expected Deaths	Percent of Deaths Caused by COVID-19 and Look-Alikes
Alabama	34	44	67	725	93%	9%
Alaska	0	0	0	41	125%	NA
Arizona	31	66	79	904	110%	9%
Arkansas	NA	27	34	461	101%	7%
California	253	364	473	4,273	99%	11%
Colorado	59	38	79	690	101%	11%
Connecticut	NA	NA	NA	NA	83%	NA
Delaware	22	10	24	115	114%	21%
District of Columbia	NA	12	13	90	104%	14%
Florida	136	252	322	3,702	108%	9%
Georgia	43	53	76	956	117%	8%
Hawaii	0	NA	10	193	100%	5%
Idaho	NA	10	15	224	100%	7%
Illinois	274	244	369	1,932	140%	19%
Indiana	118	96	177	1,092	114%	16%
Iowa	69	41	87	466	111%	19%
Kansas	NA	20	22	421	88%	5%
Kentucky	18	42	48	503	98%	10%
Louisiana	43	32	50	492	97%	10%
Maine	NA	15	20	255	114%	8%
Maryland	195	131	252	1,020	94%	25%
Massachusetts	403	201	460	1,332	102%	35%
Michigan	137	137	209	1,606	99%	13%
Minnesota	132	68	165	826	104%	20%
Mississippi	55	59	89	539	98%	17%
Missouri	34	55	76	804	102%	9%
Montana	0	NA	NA	93	86%	NA
Nebraska	21	21	33	219	104%	15%
Nevada	20	27	36	385	107%	9%
New Hampshire	32	16	37	256	109%	14%
New Jersey	275	174	327	1,388	206%	24%
New Mexico	11	16	22	233	102%	9%
New York	394	295	515	2,086	132%	25%
New York City	368	181	420	1,208	119%	35%
North Carolina	0	0	0	0	102%	NA
North Dakota	0	NA	NA	64	101%	NA
Ohio	96	84	133	1,504	99%	9%
Oklahoma	NA	27	30	443	89%	7%
Oregon	NA	NA	12	392	99%	3%
Pennsylvania	395	253	500	2,524	70%	20%
Rhode Island	11	NA	14	45	95%	31%
South Carolina	45	51	80	911	107%	9%
South Dakota	NA	NA	10	73	93%	14%
Tennessee	15	73	83	1,158	106%	7%
Texas	50	177	205	2,526	109%	8%
Utah	NA	16	21	322	101%	7%
Vermont	0	NA	NA	89	106%	NA
Virginia	125	73	158	1,176	126%	13%
Washington	NA	31	32	722	108%	4%
West Virginia	NA	NA	NA	21	38%	NA
Wisconsin	43	42	73	864	87%	8%
Wyoming	NA	NA	NA	73	83%	NA
Puerto Rico	NA	23	25	199	35%	13%
United States	4,025	3,627	5,978	42,438	81%	14%

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