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June 06, 2020 at 04:06 AM
COVID-19, and illnesses that are probably COVID-19, are still killing many people in the United States, but the number of new cases showing up in doctors’ offices, urgent care clinics and hospital emergency rooms may have fallen to low levels throughout most of the country.
Public health specialists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have published data supporting that assessment in their latest weekly COVID-19 report for the week ending May 30.
The CDC has based the report on reports submitted by Friday.
The CDC emphasizes that many of the figures in the report are incomplete, especially for the latest two weeks.
To get around testing problems, the CDC tracks data for confirmed cases of COVID-19 along with data for other illnesses that resemble COVID-19 and influenza.
The map the CDC uses to show the outbreak activity level “out in the community” uses colors ranging from deep green, for states with the lowest level of activity, up to maroon, for states with the highest level of activity.
Last week, the CDC had no data on the number of new cases cropping up “out in the community” in Idaho. Reports from Wisconsin suggested that the number of new cases was rising to a high level in Wisconsin.
This week, the only two states with activity above the lowest level are Idaho and Maryland.
Resources
- The CDC’s weekly COVID-19 report is available here.
- The CDC’s provisional COVID-19 mortality data table is available here.
- An overview article about the weekly COVID-19 report for the previous week is available here.
But CDC officials say in the new report that there are signs that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, could still flare up in some communities.
Virus Warning Signs
One sign of how much SARS-CoV-2 is still out there is the percentage of patient specimens sent for SARS-CoV-2 testing that turn out to actually show signs of a SARS-CoV-2 infection.
The percentage of samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 actually increased in the Southwest, in the South Central region, on the West Coast, and in the Pacific Northwest, officials say.
Another concern is that, in most regions, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates for the children tested either held steady or increased, officials say.
Fewer than 5% of the children tested for SARS-CoV-2 actually had SARS-CoV-2, but “other age groups have seen consistent declines in percent positivity in recent weeks,” officials say.
People who die from COVID-19 often take weeks, or months, to die.
That means that the number of people dying from COVID-19 now mainly reflects infections that occurred in April or May.
COVID-19 and illnesses that could have been COVID-19 accounted for about 8.4% of all deaths in the week ending May 30, according to the very earliest numbers for that week.
That’s down sharply, from a peak of about 28%, in April, but it’s still well above the 6.3% epidemic threshold for the week.
Because of the way states submit death data, and the way the CDC processes the data, that measure of epidemic severity may take about a week to firm up. It’s possible that the final numbers will show that, for the week ending May 30, COVID-19 and COVID look-alikes continued to be responsible for more than 10% of all deaths.
COVID-19 at the State Level
One concern about the accuracy of the data is that many state and local officials are eager to ease the lockdown rules imposed in an effort to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Some critics of the reopening efforts have accused officials of manipulating outbreak numbers in an effort to hide the severity of the outbreak and accelerate the reopening process.
In Florida, for example, public health officials announced Friday that they had recorded 1,305 new cases of COVID-19 that day, bringing the total number to 61,488. In Florida, the ratio of new cases to total cases is about the same as the ratio of new deaths to total deaths. That might be a sign the outbreak is simmering at about the same rate as before.
California is continuing to record more than about 2,000 new cases per day.
Texas is recording more than 1,500 cases per day.
In the United States, about 6% of the people who have contracted confirmed cases of COVID-19 have died. If that ratio continues to hold,
The number of new cases being recorded per day in California, Florida and Texas this week could translate into about 300 extra deaths per day in those states two or three months per now.
The Insured Population
One question is how the CDC’s figures might relate to the death rate and the disability rate for people who have commercial life insurance, disability insurance and annuities.
Richard Bielen, the chief executive officer of Protective Life, talked about an analysis of his company’s early COVID-19 death claims Wednesday, at an S&P Global insurance conference
Bielen reported that the average age of the insured who died was 79, the average policy age was 24 years, the average death claim was under $150,000, and there were no signs that people had bought coverage because they knew they were at high risk of dying from COVID-19.
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Deaths by Week |
||||||||
| United States | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week ending | COVID-19 Deaths | Pneumonia Deaths | Influenza Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Percent of Expected Deaths | COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death |
| 2/1/2020 | 0 | 3,732 | 476 | 4,208 | 57,720 | 97% | 6% | 7% |
| 2/8/2020 | 1 | 3,722 | 514 | 4,237 | 58,324 | 98% | 6% | 7% |
| 2/15/2020 | 0 | 3,753 | 543 | 4,296 | 57,667 | 98% | 7% | 7% |
| 2/22/2020 | 3 | 3,624 | 556 | 4,182 | 57,746 | 99% | 6% | 7% |
| 2/29/2020 | 5 | 3,749 | 633 | 4,384 | 58,110 | 101% | 6% | 8% |
| 3/7/2020 | 32 | 3,873 | 618 | 4,506 | 58,259 | 101% | 7% | 8% |
| 3/14/2020 | 52 | 3,868 | 607 | 4,499 | 57,127 | 100% | 7% | 8% |
| 3/21/2020 | 545 | 4,421 | 536 | 5,251 | 57,679 | 102% | 8% | 9% |
| 3/28/2020 | 3,018 | 5,992 | 437 | 8,033 | 61,552 | 110% | 10% | 13% |
| 4/4/2020 | 9,412 | 9,522 | 460 | 14,657 | 69,905 | 125% | 14% | 21% |
| 4/11/2020 | 15,505 | 11,549 | 462 | 20,219 | 76,068 | 137% | 15% | 27% |
| 4/18/2020 | 16,042 | 10,754 | 256 | 19,998 | 72,970 | 135% | 15% | 27% |
| 4/25/2020 | 13,685 | 9,403 | 141 | 17,251 | 68,410 | 127% | 14% | 25% |
| 5/2/2020 | 10,969 | 7,842 | 56 | 14,137 | 62,593 | 117% | 13% | 23% |
| 5/9/2020 | 9,779 | 6,912 | 44 | 12,567 | 59,310 | 112% | 12% | 21% |
| 5/16/2020 | 7,322 | 5,505 | 18 | 9,802 | 53,805 | 102% | 10% | 18% |
| 5/23/2020 | 4,025 | 3,627 | 14 | 5,978 | 42,438 | 81% | 9% | 14% |
| 5/30/2020 | 1,163 | 1,519 | 1 | 2,212 | 24,218 | 46% | 6% | 9% |
| Idaho | ||||||||
| Week ending | COVID-19 Deaths | Pneumonia Deaths | Influenza Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Percent of Expected Deaths | COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death |
| 2/1/2020 | 0 | 11 | NA | 12 | 249 | 96% | 4% | 5% |
| 2/8/2020 | 0 | 18 | NA | 20 | 293 | 116% | 6% | 7% |
| 2/15/2020 | 0 | 11 | NA | 12 | 279 | 98% | 4% | 4% |
| 2/22/2020 | 0 | 17 | NA | 21 | 318 | 84% | 5% | 7% |
| 2/29/2020 | 0 | 17 | NA | 20 | 289 | 88% | 6% | 7% |
| 3/7/2020 | 0 | 17 | NA | 20 | 278 | 104% | 6% | 7% |
| 3/14/2020 | 0 | 18 | NA | 21 | 284 | 89% | 6% | 7% |
| 3/21/2020 | 0 | 22 | NA | 26 | 308 | 110% | 7% | 8% |
| 3/28/2020 | NA | 14 | NA | 20 | 332 | 99% | 4% | 6% |
| 4/4/2020 | NA | 15 | NA | 22 | 271 | 96% | 6% | 8% |
| 4/11/2020 | 22 | 17 | 0 | 34 | 305 | 104% | 6% | 11% |
| 4/18/2020 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 19 | 282 | 103% | 5% | 7% |
| 4/25/2020 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 24 | 261 | 127% | 6% | 9% |
| 5/2/2020 | NA | 13 | 0 | 15 | 251 | 94% | 5% | 6% |
| 5/9/2020 | NA | NA | NA | 13 | 301 | 107% | NA | 4% |
| 5/16/2020 | NA | 11 | 0 | 15 | 267 | 101% | 4% | 6% |
| 5/23/2020 | NA | 10 | 0 | 15 | 224 | 100% | 4% | 7% |
| 5/30/2020 | NA | NA | 0 | NA | 160 | 96% | NA | NA |
| New York City | ||||||||
| Week ending | COVID-19 Deaths | Pneumonia Deaths | Influenza Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Percent of Expected Deaths | COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death |
| 2/1/2020 | 0 | 95 | 19 | 114 | 1,168 | 102% | 8% | 10% |
| 2/8/2020 | 0 | 95 | 18 | 113 | 1,170 | 98% | 8% | 10% |
| 2/15/2020 | 0 | 86 | 14 | 100 | 1,130 | 99% | 8% | 9% |
| 2/22/2020 | 0 | 75 | NA | 84 | 1,092 | 101% | 7% | 8% |
| 2/29/2020 | 0 | 83 | NA | 89 | 1,109 | 102% | 7% | 8% |
| 3/7/2020 | 0 | 92 | NA | 100 | 1,112 | 101% | 8% | 9% |
| 3/14/2020 | NA | 104 | NA | 113 | 1,133 | 104% | 9% | 10% |
| 3/21/2020 | 122 | 155 | 14 | 248 | 1,400 | 134% | 11% | 18% |
| 3/28/2020 | 954 | 597 | 47 | 1,201 | 2,769 | 269% | 22% | 43% |
| 4/4/2020 | 3,073 | 1,708 | 211 | 3,498 | 6,049 | 587% | 28% | 58% |
| 4/11/2020 | 4,690 | 2,081 | 326 | 4,992 | 7,691 | 721% | 27% | 65% |
| 4/18/2020 | 3,700 | 1,476 | 172 | 3,840 | 5,686 | 559% | 26% | 68% |
| 4/25/2020 | 2,377 | 1,056 | 78 | 2,477 | 3,798 | 385% | 28% | 65% |
| 5/2/2020 | 1,343 | 634 | NA | 1,429 | 2,451 | 243% | 26% | 58% |
| 5/9/2020 | 1,005 | 466 | NA | 1,076 | 2,016 | 205% | 23% | 53% |
| 5/16/2020 | 589 | 296 | 0 | 654 | 1,542 | 150% | 19% | 42% |
| 5/23/2020 | 368 | 181 | NA | 420 | 1,208 | 119% | 15% | 35% |
| 5/30/2020 | 152 | 104 | 0 | 193 | 852 | 102% | 12% | 23% |
| Wisconsin | ||||||||
| Week ending | COVID-19 Deaths | Pneumonia Deaths | Influenza Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Percent of Expected Deaths | COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 Deaths As a Percentage of Total Death |
| 2/8/2020 | 0 | 53 | NA | 58 | 1,051 | NA | 5% | 6% |
| 2/15/2020 | 0 | 75 | 12 | 87 | 1,123 | NA | 7% | 8% |
| 2/22/2020 | 0 | 57 | 14 | 71 | 1,158 | NA | 5% | 6% |
| 2/29/2020 | 0 | 54 | 16 | 70 | 1,135 | NA | 5% | 6% |
| 3/7/2020 | 0 | 62 | 16 | 78 | 1,114 | NA | 6% | 7% |
| 3/14/2020 | 0 | 56 | 32 | 88 | 1,102 | NA | 5% | 8% |
| 3/21/2020 | NA | 74 | 19 | 97 | 1,109 | NA | 7% | 9% |
| 3/28/2020 | 18 | 73 | 13 | 103 | 1,143 | NA | 6% | 9% |
| 4/4/2020 | 75 | 89 | NA | 161 | 1,214 | NA | 7% | 13% |
| 4/11/2020 | 76 | 75 | NA | 143 | 1,168 | NA | 6% | 12% |
| 4/18/2020 | 72 | 52 | NA | 114 | 1,138 | NA | 5% | 10% |
| 4/25/2020 | 47 | 55 | 0 | 99 | 1,020 | NA | 5% | 10% |
| 5/2/2020 | 66 | 56 | 0 | 116 | 1,140 | NA | 5% | 10% |
| 5/9/2020 | 55 | 50 | NA | 90 | 1,049 | NA | 5% | 9% |
| 5/16/2020 | 51 | 47 | NA | 89 | 956 | NA | 5% | 9% |
| 5/23/2020 | 43 | 42 | 0 | 73 | 864 | NA | 5% | 8% |
| 5/30/2020 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 28 | 526 | NA | 4% | 5% |
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Deaths by State (Week ending May 16) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | COVID-19 Deaths | Pneumonia Deaths | Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths | Total Deaths | Percent of Expected Deaths | Percent of Deaths Caused by COVID-19 and Look-Alikes |
| Alabama | 34 | 44 | 67 | 725 | 93% | 9% |
| Alaska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 125% | NA |
| Arizona | 31 | 66 | 79 | 904 | 110% | 9% |
| Arkansas | NA | 27 | 34 | 461 | 101% | 7% |
| California | 253 | 364 | 473 | 4,273 | 99% | 11% |
| Colorado | 59 | 38 | 79 | 690 | 101% | 11% |
| Connecticut | NA | NA | NA | NA | 83% | NA |
| Delaware | 22 | 10 | 24 | 115 | 114% | 21% |
| District of Columbia | NA | 12 | 13 | 90 | 104% | 14% |
| Florida | 136 | 252 | 322 | 3,702 | 108% | 9% |
| Georgia | 43 | 53 | 76 | 956 | 117% | 8% |
| Hawaii | 0 | NA | 10 | 193 | 100% | 5% |
| Idaho | NA | 10 | 15 | 224 | 100% | 7% |
| Illinois | 274 | 244 | 369 | 1,932 | 140% | 19% |
| Indiana | 118 | 96 | 177 | 1,092 | 114% | 16% |
| Iowa | 69 | 41 | 87 | 466 | 111% | 19% |
| Kansas | NA | 20 | 22 | 421 | 88% | 5% |
| Kentucky | 18 | 42 | 48 | 503 | 98% | 10% |
| Louisiana | 43 | 32 | 50 | 492 | 97% | 10% |
| Maine | NA | 15 | 20 | 255 | 114% | 8% |
| Maryland | 195 | 131 | 252 | 1,020 | 94% | 25% |
| Massachusetts | 403 | 201 | 460 | 1,332 | 102% | 35% |
| Michigan | 137 | 137 | 209 | 1,606 | 99% | 13% |
| Minnesota | 132 | 68 | 165 | 826 | 104% | 20% |
| Mississippi | 55 | 59 | 89 | 539 | 98% | 17% |
| Missouri | 34 | 55 | 76 | 804 | 102% | 9% |
| Montana | 0 | NA | NA | 93 | 86% | NA |
| Nebraska | 21 | 21 | 33 | 219 | 104% | 15% |
| Nevada | 20 | 27 | 36 | 385 | 107% | 9% |
| New Hampshire | 32 | 16 | 37 | 256 | 109% | 14% |
| New Jersey | 275 | 174 | 327 | 1,388 | 206% | 24% |
| New Mexico | 11 | 16 | 22 | 233 | 102% | 9% |
| New York | 394 | 295 | 515 | 2,086 | 132% | 25% |
| New York City | 368 | 181 | 420 | 1,208 | 119% | 35% |
| North Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102% | NA |
| North Dakota | 0 | NA | NA | 64 | 101% | NA |
| Ohio | 96 | 84 | 133 | 1,504 | 99% | 9% |
| Oklahoma | NA | 27 | 30 | 443 | 89% | 7% |
| Oregon | NA | NA | 12 | 392 | 99% | 3% |
| Pennsylvania | 395 | 253 | 500 | 2,524 | 70% | 20% |
| Rhode Island | 11 | NA | 14 | 45 | 95% | 31% |
| South Carolina | 45 | 51 | 80 | 911 | 107% | 9% |
| South Dakota | NA | NA | 10 | 73 | 93% | 14% |
| Tennessee | 15 | 73 | 83 | 1,158 | 106% | 7% |
| Texas | 50 | 177 | 205 | 2,526 | 109% | 8% |
| Utah | NA | 16 | 21 | 322 | 101% | 7% |
| Vermont | 0 | NA | NA | 89 | 106% | NA |
| Virginia | 125 | 73 | 158 | 1,176 | 126% | 13% |
| Washington | NA | 31 | 32 | 722 | 108% | 4% |
| West Virginia | NA | NA | NA | 21 | 38% | NA |
| Wisconsin | 43 | 42 | 73 | 864 | 87% | 8% |
| Wyoming | NA | NA | NA | 73 | 83% | NA |
| Puerto Rico | NA | 23 | 25 | 199 | 35% | 13% |
| United States | 4,025 | 3,627 | 5,978 | 42,438 | 81% | 14% |
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