Those who withdraw investments during periods of market volatility will rue the day, at least according to Dalbar in its 26th Annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior study that measures the effects of investor decisions over short and long time frames. In fact, since 1984, the study found 70% of average investor underperformance happened during 10 key periods of market crisis when they took action, i.e. buying or selling, instead of staying the course.
During those 10 worst cases of underperformance, periods between September 1986 to October 2008, the study found eight would have produced better returns as soon as one year later if investors wouldn’t have taken any action.
Dalbar also found that in one case, during the October 1987 stock drop, investors would have produced better results one year later if they had purchased portfolio insurance, a strategy that purchases index puts that protect the investor from a downturn, but allows them to participate in an upturn.
And in one case, September 2001, investors would have done better a year later had they withdrawn assets.
If investors had ridden out the financial crisis of 2008, when there was a 30% market loss, they would have fully recovered their investments by 2010.
A buy-and-hold investment of $100,000 earning S&P 500 returns would have gotten these results, according to the study:
- $25,515 more than the average equity fund investor from 2016-2019
- $16,228 more than the average equity fund investor from 2017-2019
- $12,129 more than the average equity fund investor from 2018-2019
- $5,936 more than the average equity fund investor in 2019.
Fixed income investors had the same experience. For example, in 2019 bonds had their best annual gain since 2012, earning 4.62%, states the study, but still short of the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index returns of 8.72%.