What You Need to Know
- Rough times likely lie ahead for the market, according to JPMorgan.
- At some point, the firm expects the Fed to react to a downturn.
- The big question is, where will the S&P 500 be if it does?
The stock market and the U.S. economy are likely to undergo tougher times before they improve, JPMorgan’s chief market strategist said Tuesday on CNBC, calling prospects for an economic soft landing scenario less likely.
In 2022, JPMorgan strategists focused on U.S. consumer and corporate resilience, “but as the time progresses, they’re less and less resilient,” Marko Kolanovic said on the network’s “Fast Money” show.
“We do think we will have a recession; the question is whether it’s a mild or less mild, both here in the U.S. and in Europe,” he said. “So as the time passes, we think that fundamentals are deteriorating.”
Equity markets are not currently pricing in a recession and are likely to move lower, with many segments trading as if the energy crisis, war and sharp monetary tightening didn’t happen last year, JPMorgan analysts said in note issued Monday. A companion note indicated the firm expects the current market rally to start fading this quarter and suggested investors use potential gains in the coming weeks to reduce exposure.
Kolanovic wrote a week ago that JPMorgan “turned outright negative on global equities” in December, and noted that weakening economic data and an anticipated decline in earnings expectations suggest markets will move lower.
Investors may believe narratives that the recession is over, but JPMorgan disagrees, Kolanovic said on CNBC, noting that data from regional Federal Reserve economic surveys indicate weakening.
“So the question is for me, what’s going to make this survey turn up, these data points turn up, and I don’t see that happening” unless the Fed cuts interest rates, and the Fed doesn’t have an intention to cut now, “so I do think things have to get worse before they get better,” Kolanovic said.