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Will There Be a Recession This Year? Grantham, Shilling, Others Weigh In

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Uncertainties surrounding inflation, interest rate hikes, war in Ukraine and other variables has led to diverse expert opinions on whether a recession is imminent, with leading investors and analysts offering contrasting forecasts.

Chief financial officers at major organizations don’t think the economy can avoid a recession, and a majority expect one in the first half of 2023, according to a new CNBC CFO Council survey. But there are diverging views even within organizations.

Disagreement over the economy’s direction is evident in recent views from major players at JPMorgan Chase.

JPMorgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon expressed caution earlier this month about an approaching economic “hurricane,” although he wasn’t sure whether it would be small or a superstorm. He said the bank was preparing for “bad outcomes,” CNN reported.

As The Washington Post noted this week, however, top JPMorgan analysts offered sunnier views.

Marco Kolanovic, JPMorgan global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, said the same day he doesn’t expect a recession this year, based on financially strong American consumers and worldwide post-pandemic lockdown reopenings.

Days later, the Post noted, JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman told Bloomberg he expects financially strong consumers and companies to keep the economy healthy, doesn’t see a financial storm on the way and thinks the economy will sidestep a recession in 2022.

In the gallery above is a sampling of recent views from leading economists, analysts, strategists and investors on the recession outlook.