As concerns continue over inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, market volatility and other challenges, Bob Doll, chief investment officer of Crossmark Global Investments, sees few positive signs for the second half of the year. Unless you’re a Republican.
One of the few bright spots: He expects inflation will decline. However, he doesn’t expect anything in the economy to change significantly between now and year-end. So Democrats should continue to worry about losing control of Congress, Doll said Tuesday, during a “Doll’s Deliberations Live” webinar.
One partially bright spot: While the price of gas and oil continues to be relatively high, caused largely by the Russia-Ukraine war, he pointed out that the average American spends a lot less on oil now than they did at the height of the oil crisis in 1980. Therefore, “it will take much higher oil prices this time to wreak havoc on our economy than it did then,” he noted.
Contributing to that good news has been the growing popularity of electric vehicles as people have shifted to alternative sources of fuel, as well as the world economy becoming more energy-efficient.
Meanwhile, “bonds have been anything but boring,” he said. “I wish they would turn into boring for a little bit so equities could regain their footing. It is among the reasons equities have struggled so much.”
When Doll published his annual list of 10 predictions in early January, he, like almost everybody else, had little way of knowing that the markets and global economy would soon be facing a “black swan” event in the form of the Russia-Ukraine war.
But advisors and investors should continue to focus on their long-term investment plans and not get spooked to do otherwise, he said Tuesday, echoing what he told ThinkAdvisor during an interview in March.
What we can expect through the rest of this year is a “tug of war between earnings tailwinds and valuation headwinds,” according to Doll.
During Tuesday’s webinar, he provided an updated list of his top 10 predictions for the year. Check them out in the gallery above.