In California, in the 2019 individual major medical market....
1. All 11 carriers that have been in the market in 2018 are on track to return.
2. The average list price of coverage will go up 8.7% — or less than 10%.
3. The average price for returning consumers who shop for the cheapest plan at a given coverage level could fall about 0.7%.
4. The 2019 rates should be reasonably stable even though the elimination of the ACA individual coverage ownership mandate added an average increase of about 3.5 percentage points to the issuers' rates.


5. The relatively stable 2019 rates also look the way they do in spite of the fact that the medical trend, or the impact of the underlying change in the cost and use of medical care, added average increases of about 7.5 percentage points to the 2019 rate totals.

Managers of Covered California — the Affordable Care Act public exchange program in California — today released a startling new preview of how the state’s 2019 individual major medical insurance market might look.

(Related: 5 Weird New Facts About Trump’s ACA Exchange System)

The Covered California announcement puts recent news about the forces buffeting the individual major medical market in a strange new light.

A copy of the full announcement is available here.

For a look at what all of that could mean in California, in 2019, see the idea cards in the slideshow above.

The California announcement comes on the heels of similar strange announcements coming out of states like Colorado, Oregon and Vermont. (Two very normal details, however, are that no manager of a state-based exchange is talking about good things happening to agent and broker compensation, and that no issuer has sent ThinkAdvisor a commission increase announcement.)

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