If current laws, regulations and programs stay in place roughly as is, federal government subsidies for low-income users of Medicare Part D drug plans might grow rapidly over the next 10 years.
Medicare Part D plan subsidy spending could grow an average of 9% per year from 2019 through 2028, according to analysts at the Congressional Budget Office.
Medicare Part D subsidy spending could increase to $65 billion in 2028, from about $28 billion this year, if the CBO analysts’ projections are correct.
CBO analysts expect overall federal spending on all “mandatory, means-tested” health care program subsidies to grow 5.6% per year over the next decade.
Spending on other types of mandatory, means-tested welfare programs, such as food stamps, could grow an average of just 1.8% per year.
(Related: 18 Federal Health Budget Cut Options)
The CBO analysts included the spending predictions in a new look at federal outlays on mandatory, means-tested programs.
A copy of the analysis is available here.
The CBO is an arm of Congress. It helps members of Congress understand the federal budget and federal spending programs, and how policy proposals might affect the federal budget.
CBO analysts define “mandatory” spending as spending required by federal laws.