The current version of the American Health Care Act could cut the federal budget deficit by $337 billion over the next decade but increase the number of uninsured people by 86%, to 52 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Most of the reductions in the federal budget deficit would occur after 2020.
About half of the increase in the number of uninsured people would be the result of reductions in federal support for Medicaid. The changes could cut the number of people who have Medicaid coverage in 2026 by 19%, to 57 million.
Use of individual coverage in 2026 might be 8% lower than under current law, and use of group health coverage might be 5% lower. Insurers could be covering 23 million people through commercial individual and family policies in 2026, and about 150 million through commercial group health policies.
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Government revenue might fall $894 billion, but spending would fall $1.2 trillion.
An elimination of the Affordable Care Act net investment tax could be the biggest source of lost income. That change could cost the government $158 billion in revenue over 10 years.
Other big losses could come from the repeal of the ACA health insurer tax, which could cost $145 billion, and the repeal of an ACA Medicare tax imposed on high earners. The Medicaid change could cut revenue by $117 billion.