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CBO: PPACA bill may lead to 55% rise in uninsured count

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Enacting the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) mandate repeal provisions in H.R. 3762 could cut federal budget deficits by about $130 billion from 2016 through 2025, according to analysts at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The mandate repeal provisions in H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconciliation Act of 2015 bill, would cut federal spending by about $79 billion over 10 years, and they could also lead to economic effects that could cut federal budget deficits by about $51 billion over that same period, the analysts say in a new report.

The H.R. 3762 mandate repeal provisions could also increase the number of U.S. residents without health coverage from 42 million to 43 million, or 15 percent of the nonelderly U.S. population, in years after 2016, the analysts estimate.

If the current PPACA mandates stay in place, only about 26 million to 27 million nonelderly people will lack coverage, the analysts predict.

If the CBO forecasts are correct, the H.R. 3762 mandate repeal provisions could increase the number of uninsured U.S. residents by 55 percent to 65 percent.

The mandate repeal provisions would save about $760 to $815 per additional uninsured person per year, according to calculations based on the CBO figures.

H.R. 3762 would repeal the PPACA individual mandate and employer coverage mandate provisions.

The bill also would repeal the PPACA medical device tax, the PPACA high-cost “Cadillac plan” excise tax, the PPACA provisions that established the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), and PPACA group plan enrollment provisions.

“Nearly all of [the] reduction in coverage would arise from repealing the mandate on individuals to obtain health insurance coverage,” the analysts write in the report.

Other changes could reduce enrollment in employment-based coverage by 5 million, but the repeal of the Cadillac plan tax could lead to a 500,000 to 1 million net increase in employer plan enrollment, the analysts say.


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