The states with HealthCare.gov exchanges will be ending their tax season special enrollment period (SEP) at 11:59 p.m. EDT today.
Most of the states with locally run exchanges that are offering tax season SEPs are also ending their SEPs today.
The deadline means that, around 11:59 p.m. EDT, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) public exchange system will have about all of the qualified health plan (QHP) enrollees they are going to get through the open enrollment period and broad enrollment period extensions.
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The official major medical enrollment period for 2015 started Nov. 15 and was supposed to end March 15 in most of the country. Regulators added the tax season SEP to help consumers who say they first learned about the new penalty that PPACA imposes on many people who lack minimum essential coverage (MEC) when they filed their income taxes for 2014.
Charles Gaba, the editor of the ACASignups.net major medical enrollment blog, has estimated that the public exchanges have about 12.3 million QHP enrollees, or people who have selected QHPs and still have time to make their first premium payment.
The ACAsignsup.net total includes 9.4 million HealthCare QHP enrollees and about 3 million state-based exchange QHP enrollees.
Gaba has suggested that consumers may have also bought about 8.6 million PPACA-compliant policies outside the exchange system, and that the PPACA Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP) exchange programs may be providing coverage for about 330,000 people.
So, what really happened?
Many of the players are still vague about what exactly it was that they saw.
For a look at some of the latest reports, read on.
1. Public exchange plan selection activity met the low goal HHS set, but it fell short of the original CBO enrollment forecast.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), the arm of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in charge of the PPACA system, originally estimated in a paperwork review notice that the exchanges would get only about 4.3 million applications for 2014 QHP coverage, but the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggested the exchanges would get 7 million enrollees.
The exchanges seem to have ended up with about 8 million plan selectors, and about 7 million who actually paid for coverage.
This year, CMS and HHS officials tried to lower expectations by saying they would be happy to attract 9 million to 9.9 million paid QHP enrollees for 2015.
The CBO originally estimated the exchanges would have 13 million enrollees for 2015. Some insurers and exchange managers were hoping that smoothly functioning exchange systems, and evidence from 2014 that QHPs worked, would help the public exchange system reach the 13 million threshold.
But the exchanges seem to have had less marketing funding this time around, the second open enrollment season was shorter, and HHS had to contend with several U.S. cases of Ebola just as it was preparing to start the enrollment period.
Some QHP issuers have said they were happy with 2015 sales, but an executive at Anthem Inc. (NYSE:ANTM) said Wednesday that sales were somewhat lower than expected.
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