It’s fair to say that I’m excitable. I’ve seen about 999 of the last two recessions coming.
Lately, what’s made me nervous (aside from the economy, the drought in California, and discovering that other people are waiting in line behind me to rinse their own coffee cups in the office sink) are the general lack of free public data on the 2014 claim experience and the idea that the uncertainty surrounding the King vs. Burwell U.S. Supreme Court case could kill off the individual health insurance market in 2016, by making pricing 2016 products correctly impossible.
Today, I had a calming conversation with Steve Zaharuk, a senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service.
Of course, people who have the money to pay to look in the insurance company financial filing databases (example: senior vice presidents at Moody’s) have seen plenty of health insurance experience data for the first three quarters of 2014. He’s also starting to see full-year data.
He hasn’t looked at data for many of the smaller companies, and even he has a hard time distinguishing the performance of public exchange plans from other types of coverage, or the performance of individual policies subject to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and blocks of grandmothered and grandfathered business.
He suspects that some smaller carriers will report ugly earnings.