Many actuaries see growing small employer interest in self-insurance, and some think small employers will consider other, less familiar options.
Analysts at Munich Health North America summarize those views in a paper based on survey responses from about 90 U.S. health insurance or health care actuaries.
The reinsurance firm conducted the survey to find out what the actuaries are thinking about the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
About 56 percent of the actuaries said they expect to see PPACA increasing commercial health insurance costs in 2015, and 5.2 percent expect to see a big PPACA-related increase.
Only 1.3 percent thinks carriers now have enough claims experience data to come up with well-supported 2015 rate proposals.