There are many possible impacts following the Supreme Court’s decision on the health reform law. Some are less straightforward than others. If the Supreme Court strikes down the individual mandate, but leaves the rest of the law in place could send premiums in the individual health insurance market up by 10% to 30%, studies suggest. Experts debate whether it would trigger the collapse of the market for individual and small businesses. If the Court invalidates the mandate, requirement to cover pre-existing condition, and limits on what insurers charge the elderly would prevent a jump in premiums, but leave no assurance people could get coverage when they need it. The Court could toss the Medicaid expansion only, which would prevent roughly 15 million people from gaining coverage. Though, a sizeable number could be eligible for government-subsidized private insurance, which is more expensive to subsidize than Medicaid.

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