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Actuaries See Health Cost Increases Moderating

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Experts affiliated with the Society of Actuaries are predicting that health care rate increases will drop for the remainder of this century.

Health care costs per person will rise an average of 7.5% from 2008 to 2011, then gradually fall, the actuaries estimate in a paper published by the SOA, Schaumburg, Ill.

The actuaries came up with the forecast by using historical data and making a number of assumptions about the economy.

The actuaries predict annual health care cost increases of 7.2% in 2012, 7% in 2020, and 6.7% in 2030, culminating in an increase at century’s end of 5.2%.

The actuaries have assumed an annual growth in real income per capita of 1.9%, a 3.2% annual inflation rate and a variety of other developments, such as advances in technology.