CBO: Health Care Could Consume Half Of GDP By 2082

The rest of the increase would come from factors such as advances in technology.

The CBO researchers emphasize in the report that analysts trying to estimate 2007 health care costs back in 1932 would have had a difficult time doing so, and that changes in health care technology, health care financing systems and society as a whole could easily throw off projections for 2082.

But any continuing increases in health care spending probably would hurt poor people more than high-income people, because poor people have less discretion over health care spending and other spending, the researchers write.

In some cases, poor people might end up getting less health care than they need, or they might have to accept getting lower-tech care than higher-income people receive, the researchers write.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., responded by saying he will release a schedule for an extensive series of hearings on health care costs and reform in January 2008.

“Rising health care costs are clearly at the root of our country’s long-range budget problems,” Baucus says.

The key to solving the country’s future fiscal difficulties is to address the reasons for rising health care costs, rather than simply changing Medicare and Medicaid spending choices, Baucus says.