Health Coverage Deluge? Not Yet

Benton sees employers changing plan designs and sharing more costs with employees, not moving to drop health coverage altogether.

Other consultants and analysts have been coming out with similar forecasts. Nancy Weaver, for example, a securities analyst with Stephens Inc., Little Rock, Ark., issued a health care forecast earlier this week suggesting that the gridlock in Washington will make major changes in the U.S. commercial health finance system all but impossible for the next two or three years.

Benton does see the defined contribution health plan movement picking up momentum.

The typical defined contribution health plan combines high-deductible, catastrophic health insurance with employer-funded personal health care accounts. Employers usually contribute a set amount per employee.

So far, one of the biggest obstacles seems to be federal laws and regulations that keep employers from giving employees the cash in the personal care accounts outright, Benton says.

Defined-contribution organizers have found ways to develop point systems and other systems that enable employees to build up account purchasing power over the course of several years. But, except in rare instances, experts say, organizers have not found good ways to put the cash in the hands of the employees without leading to big tax headaches.