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Portfolio > Alternative Investments > Real Estate

How Housing Wealth Really Flows Through Generations: Study

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What You Need to Know

  • A new NBER report finds that parental housing wealth gains experienced during early childhood are associated with higher future wealth.
  • Notably, higher earnings and educational attainment only partly explain the higher future wealth estimates.
  • The authors say their big conclusions highlight the role of parental behaviors in driving the intergenerational transmission of wealth.

While households have a variety of means to generate wealth over the long term, from wages to the stock market, perhaps no wealth-building mechanism is as broadly utilized by Americans as the housing market.

The fact is that housing wealth is far more evenly distributed across the population than are other forms of financial wealth such as equities or direct business investment, and for all but the wealthiest households, the main source of wealth is their home.

This is why a new analysis published by the National Bureau of Economic Research seeks to elucidate some key questions about the ways evolving levels of housing wealth (and volatility in the housing market itself) contribute to the intergenerational transfer and building of wealth.

Specifically, the researchers ask what long-term financial effects that lower and more volatile amounts of parental housing wealth have on children once they reach adulthood.

At a high level, the researchers find that large fluctuations in home prices during the housing boom and bust cycle are indeed likely to meaningfully affect wealth accumulation among the next generation, who were young children during this period.

The authors of the paper are N. Meltem Daysal of the University of Copenhagen; Michael Lovenheim of the Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell University; and David Wasser, a researcher and labor economist at the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the trio, the main results “indicate that parental housing wealth shocks [that are] experienced during youth are passed through to children, but that the transmission happens differentially based on the age of the child when the shock occurred.”

As the paper explores, while parental housing wealth gains in early childhood are primarily reflected in higher housing wealth of children, wealth gains during middle childhood affect both adult children’s housing and non-housing wealth. In contrast, the researchers find no evidence that parental housing shocks during children’s teenage years affect later-in-life wealth outcomes.

The authors say their results have a variety of practical implications for families, financial professionals and policymakers. First, from a policy perspective, they suggest that policies that support wealth accumulation of parents, especially parents of young children, will foster higher wealth accumulation among children as they age.

Second, their “preferred interpretation” of the results highlights the role of parental behaviors in driving the intergenerational transmission of wealth. These behaviors could be independently targeted by policy interventions, for example by helping develop financial literacy, the authors argue.

Housing Wealth Transfers by the Numbers

According to the authors, the results of the analysis suggest that parental housing wealth changes during childhood are differentially passed on to children later in life based on the age at which the wealth change occurs.

For overall wealth, the authors explain, the largest effect is seen with housing wealth changes occurring during early childhood (before the age of 5), and middle childhood (between the ages of 6 and 11).

In the former case, the authors find that about 27% of increased housing wealth is passed onto children in the form of higher total wealth in adulthood, whereas about 25% of the increased wealth is passed onto the next generation when it is generated during middle childhood.

Digging deeper into the results, the authors find that parental housing wealth gains during early childhood are only transmitted to children’s future housing wealth, with nearly 25% of added parental housing wealth gained during early childhood being transmitted to the child’s housing wealth at ages 29 to 33.

“The effects of parental housing wealth gains during middle childhood, on the other hand, affect both housing and non-housing wealth accumulation,” the authors explain. “Transmission to housing wealth is 15.2% and transmission to non-housing wealth is 10.1%.”

As the authors emphasize, these transmission estimates differ substantially from the raw correlations, and this difference varies by age and wealth measure. Hence, they argue, the intergenerational correlations “reflect a varying mix of correlated parent-child characteristics and causal effects of wealth changes.”

The Housing Wealth Transfer Mechanism

After examining these baseline effects, the researchers turn to understanding the mechanisms through which the results operate, and they propose a “conceptual framework” that articulates the potential mechanisms through which wealth may be transmitted across generations.

Specifically, they argue that the effects could be driven by five principal means. These are the direct effects of wealth (i.e., transfers), the effects on asset allocation (other wealth), increased childhood educational attainment; changes to child labor market earnings and changes to unobserved parental behaviors that shape children’s saving and investment behavior.

“We do not have data to examine the effects of the first two channels, but we argue that in our setting there is little scope for them to drive the transmission effects,” the authors note.

On the other hand, the authors say, the administrative data underlying the analysis allows them to examine the effects on educational attainment and earnings — and they purport to show that positive parental housing wealth changes in youth increase the likelihood of homeownership, the level of educational attainment and earnings in adulthood.

The researchers then examine the role of earnings and education in explaining housing wealth transmission estimates, finding these two mechanisms explain “at most 20% to 30% of the transmission” of parental housing wealth changes during early- to mid-childhood to adult wealth.

“We attribute the large unexplained residual to changes in unobserved household environment and parental behaviors that are passed down to children and influence their savings propensity and investment behavior,” the authors explain.

Conclusions and Considerations

Bringing the results together, the authors conclude that the transmission of wealth shocks is much smaller during the teenage years, and that this result is consistent with the well-grounded hypothesis that younger children likely are more malleable with respect to parental behaviors and the household environment than are teenagers.

“These household factors act as within-household public goods since they are non-rival and non-excludable,” the authors suggest. “Consistent with this interpretation, we find that effects change little with the number of children in the household, except at the youngest ages for non-housing wealth. This would not be the case if the main mechanisms required direct expenditures by parents on children.”

As noted, the researchers say their “preferred interpretation” of the results is one that highlights the role of parental behaviors in driving the intergenerational transmission of wealth. Such behaviors could be independently targeted by policy interventions, for example by helping develop financial knowledge.

“[Finally], our estimates add to the evidence on the long-run impact of housing market volatility,” the authors state. “In particular, the large fluctuations in home prices during the housing boom and bust are likely to meaningfully impact wealth accumulation among the next generation who were young children during this period. Subsequent work directly examining these cohorts and understanding how parental behaviors are shaped by wealth fluctuations would be of high value.”

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