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Harry Dent's Stock Market, Economic Predictions, 1999-2021: How Did They Turn Out?

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Harry Dent is a prolific author of investing books and predictor of the direction of the stock market and the economy. ThinkAdvisor has featured a number of interviews with Dent, including a discussion in late November of his negative views on the stock market and the economy for 2022

We wanted to go back over time and take a look at some of Dent’s predictions and compare them to what actually happened, looking at where Dent’s predictions were on target and where he missed. 

Who Is Harry Dent? 

Dent, known as the “Contrarian’s Contrarian,” is a Harvard-educated economist who runs a research firm, HSD Publishing. The firm publishes newsletters including the HS Dent Forecast. Dent is also the author of many bestselling books on the markets and the economy. 

Dent has written at least 10 books over the years, with a number of them becoming bestsellers. 

Dent bases his predictions largely on demographic, market and economic cycles. He has pointed to intervention by the Federal Reserve when those predictions have not materialized, likening continued stimulus to giving drugs to an addict.

When asked by ThinkAdvisor in March how he responds to critics, he said he told them to pound sand (not his exact words) and pointed out that publishing newsletters allowed him to adjust forecasts as conditions changed.

What Dent Got Right

  • Dent correctly called the “bubble burst” in Japan in 1989 and the long recession that ensued.
  • He also correctly predicted the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
  • Additionally, Dent is credited with predicting the populist groundswell that propelled Donald Trump into the presidency. 

Beyond these predictions, many of Dent’s forecasts have missed the mark. Here is a look back at some of his more notable stock market and economic calls. 

(Cover photo courtesy of Harry Dent; images: Diego Radzinschi/ALM, Adobe Stock)